as time progresses and fossil fuel emissions increase, the number of record highs should increase and record lows should decrease.

Global warming

These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data have been collected from ice cores.

Global warming

The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010–2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4° by 2100.

Greenhouse gas

Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate.

Peak oil

Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.

Peak oil


From 1970 until 1998 there was a warming period that raised temperatures by about 0.7 F that helped spawn the global warming alarmist movement.

Eocene

These isotope changes occurred due to the release of carbon from the ocean into the atmosphere that led to a temperature increase of 4-8 °C (7-14 °F) at the surface of the ocean.

Global warming

Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.

Global warming

An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was dubbed the global warming hiatus.

Paleocene

The Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum was an approximate 200,000 year long event where the global average temperature rose by some 5 to 8 °C (9 to 14 °F), and mid-latitude and polar areas may have exceeded modern tropical temperatures of 24–29 °C (75–84 °F).

Paleocene

For comparison, the average global temperature for the period between 1951 and 1980 was 14 °C (57 °F).


However, since 1998, little warming has occurred while carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase.

Carbon dioxide

Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.

Global warming

CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.

Global warming

Greenhouse gas

The sharp acceleration in CO 2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, based on the scientific consensus that (part one) global warming is occurring and (part two) it is extremely likely that human-made CO2 emissions have predominantly caused it.


describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040

Coral bleaching

During this period, 19 percent of coral reefs worldwide were lost, and 60 percent of the remaining reefs are at immediate risk of being lost.

Drought

Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseases Mass migration, resulting in internal displacement and international refugees Reduced electricity production due to reduced water-flow through hydroelectric dams Shortages of water for industrial users Snake migration, which results in snake-bites Social unrest War over natural resources, including water and food Wildfires, such as Australian bushfires, become more common during times of drought and may cause human deaths.

Effects of global warming on human health:350

With degradation of protective coral reefs through acidic erosion, bleaching and death, salt water is able to infiltrate fresh ground water supplies that large populations depend on.

Great Barrier Reef

Battle for the Reef – Four Corners – ABC.au Great Barrier Reef scientists confirm largest die-off of corals recorded.

Wild fisheries

A recent paper published by the National Academy of Sciences of the USA warns that: "Synergistic effects of habitat destruction, overfishing, introduced species, warming, acidification, toxins, and massive runoff of nutrients are transforming once complex ecosystems like coral reefs and kelp forests into monotonous level bottoms, transforming clear and productive coastal seas into anoxic dead zones, and transforming complex food webs topped by big animals into simplified, microbially dominated ecosystems with boom and bust cycles of toxic dinoflagellate blooms, jellyfish, and disease".


But the heads of small island nations, fearful of rising sea levels, had also asked scientists to examine the effects of 2.7 degrees of warming.

Effects of global warming

In 2015, a study by Professor James Hansen of Columbia University and 16 other climate scientists said a sea level rise of three metres could be a reality by the end of the century.

Global warming

The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.

Regional effects of global warming

"Rising sea levels threaten small Pacific island nations".

Tuvalu

Tuvaluan leaders have been concerned about the effects of rising sea levels.

Tuvalu

Sopoaga said in his speech to the meeting of heads of state and government: Tuvalu's future at current warming, is already bleak, any further temperature increase will spell the total demise of Tuvalu ... For Small Island Developing States, Least Developed Countries and many others, setting a global temperature goal of below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels is critical.


International Energy Agency, a global analysis organization, “continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future.”

International Energy Agency

This publication on renewable energy – "which is now the fastest growing sector of the energy mix and accounts for almost a fifth of all electricity produced worldwide – will join annual medium-term reports on oil, gas and coal, which the IEA already produces".

International Energy Agency

"Fatih Birol ushers in new era for IEA—Takes office as Executive Director of global energy authority".

International Energy Agency

The IEA has a broad role in promoting alternate energy sources (including renewable energy), rational energy policies, and multinational energy technology co-operation.

International Energy Agency

Environmental groups have become critical of the IEA's 450 Scenario (created to align with the 2009 Copenhagen Accord), contending that it does not align with up-to-date climate science, nor is it consistent with the Paris climate agreement that aspires to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

International Energy Agency

He further said that the IEA is overstating the role of shale in a global market, and how the core job of the IEA, is not to take things out of context.


Duffy pointed out that his chart was from a single tide gauge station, near San Francisco, and that sea levels rise at different rates around the world

1906 San Francisco earthquake

An offshore epicenter is supported by the occurrence of a local tsunami recorded by a tide gauge at the San Francisco Presidio; the wave had an amplitude of approximately 3 in (8 cm) and an approximate period of 40–45 minutes.

San Francisco Bay

As the great ice sheets began to melt, around 11,000 years ago, the sea level started to rise.

San Francisco Bay

By 5000 BC the sea level rose 300 feet (90 m), filling the valley with water from the Pacific.

Tide

Mean sea level (MSL) – This is the average sea level.

Tide

To make accurate records, tide gauges at fixed stations measure water level over time.


Brooks added that Antarctic ice is growing.

Antarctic ice sheet

The glaciation was favored by an interval when the Earth's orbit favored cool summers but oxygen isotope ratio cycle marker changes were too large to be explained by Antarctic ice-sheet growth alone indicating an ice age of some size.

Antarctic ice sheet

The general trend shows that a warming climate in the southern hemisphere would transport more moisture to Antarctica, causing the interior ice sheets to grow, while calving events along the coast will increase, causing these areas to shrink.

Antarctic ice sheet

A 2006 paper derived from satellite data, measuring changes in the gravity of the ice mass, suggests that the total amount of ice in Antarctica has begun decreasing in the past few years.

Antarctic ice sheet

Satellite measurements by NASA indicate a still increasing sheet thickness above the continent, outweighing the losses at the edge.

Second Grinnell expedition

The brig was periodically chain-lifted above the ice to prevent it from being crushed by the growing ice.


“But there are plenty of studies that have come that show with respect to Antarctica that the total ice sheet, particularly that above land, is increasing, not decreasing.

Antarctica

"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Antarctica

found instead that the net change in ice mass is slightly positive at approximately 82 gigatonnes per year (with significant regional variation) which would result in Antarctic activity reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm per year.

Antarctica

A satellite record revealed that the overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with rapid rates of decrease in 2014–2017 reducing the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record.

Sea level rise

All datasets generally show an acceleration of mass loss from the Antarctic ice-sheet, but with year-to-year variations.

Sea level rise

A 2019 study, however, using different methodology, concluded that East Antarctica is losing significant amounts of ice mass.


Climate scientists use the 20th-century average as a benchmark for global temperature measurements.

Climate

Climate is the long-term average of weather, typically averaged over a period of 30 years.

Global warming

Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.

Global warming

The IPCC has adopted the baseline reference period 1850–1900 as an approximation of pre-industrial global mean surface temperature.

Instrumental temperature record

The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.

Scientific consensus on climate change:719

Scientific consensus on climate change

On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C.


It’s also a sufficiently long period to include several cycles of climate variability.

Climate variability

Another longer-term near-millennial oscillation involves the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, occurring on roughly 1,500-year cycles during the last glacial maximum.

Climate variability

During the Pleistocene, cycles of glaciations and interglacials occurred on cycles of roughly 100,000 years, but may stay longer within an interglacial when orbital eccentricity approaches zero, as during the current interglacial.

Global Energy and Water Exchanges

There are also longer-term cycles, the mini ice-age that preceded the medieval warm period may have been a transition to an ice age, the last ice-age lasted from ~130,000 years ago until the onset of the Holocene.

Global warming

"Multicentennial variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its climatic influence in a 4000 year simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model".

Global warming

By itself, the climate system experiences various cycles which can last for years (such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation) to decades or centuries.


NOAA’s analysis found last month was the 3rd-warmest April on record globally.

2015 in science

21 July The latest global analysis of temperature data from NOAA shows that the first half of 2015 was the hottest such period on record, at 0.85 °C (1.53 °F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09 °C (0.16 °F).

2015 in science

20 August July 2015 was the hottest month on Earth since records began in 1880, according to data from NOAA.

2015 in science

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that September's global average temperature was the largest departure from normal for any month on record.

2019 in science

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that July 2019 was the hottest month on record globally, at 0.95 °C (1.71 °F) above the 20th century average.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:11

Understanding and describing Earth systems through research and analysis of that data.


The unusual heat was most noteworthy in Europe, which had its warmest April on record, and Australia, which had its second-warmest.

Australia

"Australia's extreme heat is sign of things to come, scientists warn".

Australia

According to the Bureau of Meteorology's 2011 Australian Climate Statement, Australia had lower than average temperatures in 2011 as a consequence of a La Niña weather pattern; however, "the country's 10-year average continues to demonstrate the rising trend in temperatures, with 2002–2011 likely to rank in the top two warmest 10-year periods on record for Australia, at 0.52 °C (0.94 °F) above the long-term average".

Australia

Furthermore, 2014 was Australia's third warmest year since national temperature observations commenced in 1910.

Australia

January 2019 was the hottest month ever in Australia with average temperatures exceeding 30 °C (86 °F).

Climate of Australia

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia's annual mean temperature for 2009 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 1961–90 average, making it the nation's second-warmest year since high-quality records began in 1910.


For the year-to-date, the Earth is seeing its 5th-warmest start to the year.

Earth

Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic carbon cycle, reducing CO 2 concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 100–900 million years.

New Year

New Year is the time or day at which a new calendar year begins and the calendar's year count increments by one.

Tropical year

A tropical year (also known as a solar year) is the time that the Sun takes to return to the same position in the cycle of seasons, as seen from Earth; for example, the time from vernal equinox to vernal equinox, or from summer solstice to summer solstice.

Year

This is currently on or close to January 1.

Year

Its average duration is 365.256363004 days (365 d 6 h 9 min 9.76 s) (at the epoch J2000.0 = January 1, 2000, 12:00:00 TT).


There is no empirical evidence that increasing greenhouse gases are the primary cause of Global Warming

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

Scientists have determined that the major factors causing the current climate change are greenhouse gases, land use changes, and aerosols and soot.

Greenhouse gas

Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO 2 from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming, and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change.

Greenhouse gas

During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and for human health.

Instrumental temperature record

There is a scientific consensus that climate is changing and that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.


“Today climate scientists are obsessed with the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a very very small part of the overall picture.

Greenhouse gas

Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.

Scientific consensus on climate change:148

Scientific consensus on climate change

At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution.

Scientific consensus on climate change:17

Scientific consensus on climate change

"Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years."

Scientific consensus on climate change:672

Scientific consensus on climate change

The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere."

Scientific consensus on climate change:717

Scientific consensus on climate change

The world's most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels.


Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO 2) is a colorless gas with a density about 60% higher than that of dry air.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere is a trace gas, currently (mid 2018) having a global average concentration of 409 parts per million by volume (or 622 parts per million by mass).

Carbon dioxide

It occurs naturally in Earth's atmosphere as a trace gas.

Carbon monoxide

It is now the most commonly used tracer of molecular gas in general in the interstellar medium of galaxies, as molecular hydrogen can only be detected using ultraviolet light, which requires space telescopes.

Greenhouse gas

They are trace gases that account for almost one tenth of 1% of Earth's atmosphere.


It’s not carbon dioxide, it’s not methane… Scientists estimate that somewhere between 75% and 90% of Earth greenhouse effect is caused by water vapor in clouds.”

Global warming

The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Global warming

Of these emissions, 65% was carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning and industry, 11% was carbon dioxide from land use change, which is primarily due to deforestation, 16% was from methane, 6.2% was from nitrous oxide, and 2.0% was from fluorinated gases.

Greenhouse effect

By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are: water vapor, 36–70% carbon dioxide, 9–26% methane, 4–9% ozone, 3–7% It is not possible to assign a specific percentage to each gas because the absorption and emission bands of the gases overlap (hence the ranges given above).

Greenhouse gas

Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds.

Natural gas

Excluding water vapor, about half of landfill gas is methane and most of the rest is carbon dioxide, with small amounts of nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen, and variable trace amounts of hydrogen sulfide and siloxanes.


“Every day, nature puts twenty times as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as all of Earth industries.

Air pollution

Pollutants emitted into the atmosphere by human activity include: Carbon dioxide (CO 2) – Because of its role as a greenhouse gas it has been described as "the leading pollutant" and "the worst climate pollutant".

Carbon dioxide

Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.

Coal

The coal industry damages the environment, including by climate change as it is the largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide, 14 Gt in 2016, which is 40% of the total fossil fuel emissions and almost 25% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide.

Nature

Air is mostly nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor, with much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide, argon, etc.


So it’s clear now we’re not seeing dangerous global warming, and the climate models are wrong.

Effects of global warming

Tipping points are "perhaps the most ‘dangerous’ aspect of future climate changes", leading to irreversible impacts on society.

Global warming controversy

A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".

Global warming

Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.

Greenhouse gas

The IPCC has pointed out that many long-term climate scenario models require large-scale manmade negative emissions to avoid serious climate change.

Sea level rise

This is an important confirmation of climate change simulations which predicted that sea level rise would accelerate in response to global warming.


If we double atmospheric carbon dioxide[…] we’d only raise global surface temperatures by about a degree Celsius.

Carbon dioxide

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.

Carbon dioxide

Not only do increasing carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increases in global surface temperature, but increasing global temperatures also cause increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide.

Global warming

Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.

Greenhouse gas

At current emission rates, temperatures could increase by 2 °C, which the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) designated as the upper limit to avoid "dangerous" levels, by 2036.

Svante Arrhenius

On the other hand, any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8°."


The idea that the much smaller carbon dioxide cycle is now controlling the water cycle is not very likely.

Carbon capture and storage

If CO 2 capture was part of a fuel cycle then the CO 2 would have value rather than be a cost.

Coal

The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming.

Ice age

The amount of heat trapping gases emitted into Earth's oceans and atmosphere are predicted to prevent the next glacial period, which otherwise would begin in around 50,000 years, and likely more glacial cycles.

Radiocarbon dating

At higher temperatures, CO 2 has poor solubility in water, which means there is less CO 2 available for the photosynthetic reactions.

Scuba diving

This would be followed by a buildup in carbon dioxide, causing an urgent feeling of a need to breathe, and if this cycle is not broken, panic and drowning are likely to follow.


“So the bottom line of all this is that climate change is natural, not man-made.

Attribution of recent climate change:103

Attribution of recent climate change

The clear message from fingerprint studies is that the observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Attribution of recent climate change:125

Attribution of recent climate change

Nevertheless, the bottom-line conclusion from climate fingerprinting is that most of the observed changes studied to date are consistent with each other, and are also consistent with our scientific understanding of how the climate system would be expected to respond to the increase in heat-trapping gases resulting from human activities.

Attribution of recent climate change:151

Attribution of recent climate change

(2012) stated that a combination of natural weather variability and human-induced global warming was responsible for the Moscow and Texas heat waves.

Attribution of recent climate change:423

Attribution of recent climate change

"Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans".

Sustainable development

Environmental sustainability concerns the natural environment and how it endures and remains diverse and productive.


Man-made greenhouse gases play only an insignificant role.”

Global warming

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide.

Global warming

The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Greenhouse gas

It is likely that anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:126

Atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) greenhouse gases have increased substantially.

Scientific consensus on climate change:221

Scientific consensus on climate change

Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide—to rise well above pre-industrial levels ... Increases in greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise ...


Climate scientists are telling us it’s likely we’re going to be in for a period of cooling.

Global warming

Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.

Global warming

"The next five years will be 'anomalously warm,' scientists predict".

Global warming

Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.

Ice age

The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.

Ice age

Beside the expected cooling down in comparison with the current climate, a significant precipitation change happened here.


temperatures rise and they fall, and they rise and they fall… and for the last 400 years we’ve had a gentle warming as we’ve been coming out of the little ice age.

Global warming

Global warming

Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900 (Hawkins et al., 2017).

Ice age

An ice age is a long period of reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers.

Little Ice Age

Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850

The Little Ice Age was a period from about 1550 to 1850 when the world experienced relatively cooler temperatures compared to the time before and after.


Temperatures cooled from about 1940 to 1975, and then they rose from about ’75 to about 2005 or so, and since then they’ve been flat or cooling.

Temperature

In fact the lowest temperature ever obtained in a macroscopic system was 20 nK, which was achieved in 1995 at NIST.

Temperature

A temperature of 450 ±80 pK in a Bose–Einstein condensate (BEC) of sodium atoms was achieved in 2003 by researchers at MIT.

Temperatures Rising

Temperatures Rising

Temperatures Rising


“So now we’re able to explain from natural factors how we’ve had the 20th Century warming.

20th century

The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880; Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20 °C per decade.

20th century

One argument is that of global warming occurring due to human-caused emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide produced by the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientific consensus on climate change:130

Scientific consensus on climate change

The introduction includes this statement: There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation.

Scientific consensus on climate change:37

Scientific consensus on climate change

These, together with other anthropogenic drivers, are "extremely likely" (where that means more than 95% probability) to have been the dominant cause of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century.

Scientific consensus on climate change:507

Scientific consensus on climate change

Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.


This is the South Pole ice, 90% of Earth’s ice, and it’s getting thicker.

Colonization of the Moon

It is estimated there is at least 600 million tons of ice at the north pole in sheets of relatively pure ice at least a couple of meters thick.

Greenland

Other research has shown that higher snowfalls from the North Atlantic oscillation caused the interior of the ice cap to thicken by an average of 6 cm or 2.36 in/y between 1994 and 2005.

Mars

The southern polar cap has a diameter of 350 km (220 mi) and a thickness of 3 km (1.9 mi).

Martian polar ice caps

This water ice is believed to be as much as three kilometers thick.

South Pole

The ice is estimated to be about 2,700 metres (9,000 ft) thick at the Pole, so the land surface under the ice sheet is actually near sea level.


Ocean levels have been rising for the last 20,000 years[…] No climate scientist can tell you when natural sea level rise stopped and man-made sea level rise began.

Sea level rise

Since at least the start of the 20th century, the average global sea level has been rising.

Sea level rise

Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in).

Sea level rise

Since the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago, the sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft), with rates varying from less than a mm/year to 40+ mm/year, as a result of melting ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia.

Sea level rise

The rate of rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before present; the sea level was almost constant in the last 2,500 years, before the recent rising trend that started at the end of the 19th century or in the beginning of the 20th.

Sea

At the last glacial maximum, some 20,000 years ago, the sea level was 120 metres (390 ft) below its present-day level.


According to NASA, the globally averaged temperature of the land and ocean was 0.9˚C (1.62˚F) above the 20th century average.

20th century

Global warming

Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.

Instrumental temperature record

Consistent with Schmidt's comment, the NASA / NOAA announcement stated that "globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean" and that the impact of El Niño warming was estimated to have "increased the annual global temperature anomaly for 2016 by 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.12 degrees Celsius)."

Instrumental temperature record

The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.

Sea surface temperature

This value is well above 16.1 °C (60.9 °F), the long term global average surface temperature of the oceans.


La Niñas, on the other hand, feature cooler than average waters in the Pacific

Pacific Ocean

Surface water temperatures in the Pacific can vary from −1.4 °C (29.5 °F), the freezing point of sea water, in the poleward areas to about 30 °C (86 °F) near the equator.

South Pacific convergence zone

At its southeast edge, the circulation around the feature forces a salinity gradient in the ocean, with fresher and warmer waters of the western Pacific lying to its west.

South Pacific convergence zone

Cooler and saltier waters lie to its east.

Tropical cyclone

Water temperatures must be extremely high (near or above 30 °C, 86 °F), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep such that waves do not upwell cooler waters to the surface.

Tropical cyclone

latent heat) at the temperature of the warm ocean surface (during evaporation, the ocean cools and the air warms).


Sea ice continued its declining trend, both in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Antarctica

"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Arctic Ocean

Polar Discovery "Continued Sea Ice Decline in 2005".

Arctic ice pack

As well as the regular seasonal cycle there has been an underlying trend of declining sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades.

Climate change in the Arctic

Sea ice is currently in decline in area, extent, and volume and summertime sea ice may cease to exist sometime during the 21st century.

Sea ice

Antarctic sea ice extent gradually increased in the period of satellite observations, which began in 1979, until a rapid decline in southern hemisphere spring of 2016.


Scientists say halting deforestation ‘just as urgent’ as reducing emissions

Avoided Deforestation Partners

Leading scientists and economists say that ending deforestation is the most cost effective and scalable method of reducing greenhouse gases.

Climate change mitigation

Reducing energy use is seen as a key solution to the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change mitigation

In 2008, climate scientist Kevin Anderson raised concern about the growing effect of rapidly increasing global air transport on the climate in a paper, and a presentation, suggesting that reversing this trend is necessary to reduce emissions.

Deforestation and climate change

One attempt towards fighting climate change globally is the Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) efforts, and a few countries are already starting to implement and analyse ways to protect standing trees.

Deforestation in Indonesia

The general term for these sorts of programs is Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD).


Protecting and restoring forests would reduce 18% of emissions by 2030

Climate change mitigation

10% per annum until zero emissions are reached around 2030.

Climate change mitigation

Targets for the year 2030: Reduce GHG emission by 40% from the level of 1990.

Mangrove restoration

The UN estimate deforestation and forest degradation to make up 17% of global carbon emissions, which makes it the second most polluting sector, following the energy industry.

Reforestation

Japan needs to reduce 26% of green house gas emission from 2013 by 2030 to accomplish Paris Agreement and is trying to reduce 2% of them by forestry.

Sustainable Development Goals

The report mentioned that this would require global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching "net zero" around 2050, through “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities.


It is expected the report will focus on required changes to the energy system, rather than forests.

Emissions trading

"How will the changes impact on forestry?".

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

There was high agreement and much evidence that a substantial fraction of these mitigation costs may be offset by benefits to health as a result of reduced air pollution, and that there would be further cost savings from other benefits such as increased energy security, increased agricultural production, and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems as well as, in certain countries, balance of trade improvements, provision of modern energy services to rural areas and employment.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

AR4 describes warming and cooling effects on the planet in terms of radiative forcing — the rate of change of energy in the system, measured as power per unit area (in SI units, W/m²).

Low-carbon economy

Information on the environmental impacts of alternative models of treatment and service provision Some of the suggested changes needed are: Greater efficiency and lower ecological impact of energy, buildings, and procurement choices (e.g., in-patient meals, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment).

Low-carbon economy

Low emission development strategies for the land use sector can prioritize the protection of carbon-rich ecosystems to not only reduce emissions, but also to protect biodiversity and safeguard local livelihoods to reduce rural poverty - all of which can lead to more climate resilient systems, according to a report by the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS GP).


“We almost take forests as a given but we lose forest every year, which means we are diminishing them as a carbon sink.

Carbon sink

Forest fires release absorbed carbon back into the atmosphere, as does deforestation due to rapidly increased oxidation of soil organic matter.

Carbon sink

Additionally, the amount of carbon released from harvesting is small compared to the amount of carbon lost each year to forest fires and other natural disturbances.

Deforestation

From the perspective of the developing world, the benefits of forest as carbon sinks or biodiversity reserves go primarily to richer developed nations and there is insufficient compensation for these services.

Forest

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation:418

A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests.


“It’s horrifying that we’d lose our biodiversity to avert climate change.

Climate change and ecosystems

Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from the University of York write, "The global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass extinction event’, where over 50 percent of animal and plant species would be wiped out."

Climate change and ecosystems

Researchers expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of fresh water.

Climate change in Australia

Australia has some of the world's most diverse ecosystems and natural habitats, and it may be this variety that makes them the Earth's most fragile and at-risk when exposed to climate change.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:130

"Ecosystems and species are vulnerable to climate change and other stresses (as illustrated by observed impacts of recent regional temperature changes) and some will be irreversibly damaged or lost."

Scientific consensus on climate change:142

Scientific consensus on climate change

The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.


Losing tropical forests is not somehow cheaper than putting up wind farms in the US or Sahara.”

Biodiversity

No longer do we have to justify the existence of humid tropical forests on the feeble grounds that they might carry plants with drugs that cure human disease.

Deforestation

In Central America, two-thirds of lowland tropical forests have been turned into pasture since 1950 and 40% of all the rainforests have been lost in the last 40 years.

Deforestation

The degradation of forest ecosystems has also been traced to economic incentives that make forest conversion appear more profitable than forest conservation.

Deforestation

An ambitious proposal for China is the Aerially Delivered Re-forestation and Erosion Control System and the proposed Sahara Forest Project coupled with the Seawater Greenhouse.

Habitat destruction

A country may increase its food supply by converting forest land to row-crop agriculture, but the value of the same land may be much larger when it can supply natural resources or services such as clean water, timber, ecotourism, or flood regulation and drought control.


IPCC report warning last week the world is “nowhere near on track” to meet its Paris commitments

Global warming

Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the Paris Agreement of 2016, the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold and current pledges by countries to cut emissions are inadequate to limit future warming.

Paris Agreement

"World on track for 3 °C of warming under current global climate pledges, warns UN".

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C:292

"Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)".

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C:85

Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals".

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:13

In 2015 the Paris Agreement was adopted, governing emission reductions from 2020 on through commitments of countries in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with a view of lowering the target to 1.5 °C.


But like most claims regarding global warming, the real effect is small, probably temporary, and most likely due to natural weather patterns

Global warming

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation, have been detected worldwide.

Global warming

Impacts include the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life; and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures.

Global warming

The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased volcanic activity.

Global warming

Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."

Global warming

The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.


Coastal lake sediments along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline from 1,000 to 2,000 years ago suggest more frequent and intense hurricanes than occur today.

Paleotempestology

In the Gulf of Mexico, catastrophic hurricane strikes at given locations occur once about every 350 years in the last 3,800 years or about 0.48%-0.39% annual frequency at any given site, with a recurrence rate of 300 years or 0.33% annual probability at sites in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico; category 3 or more storms occur at a rate of 3.9 - 0.1 category 3 or more storms per century in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Paleotempestology

In the past, tropical cyclones were far more frequent in the Great Barrier Reef and the northern Gulf of Mexico than today; in Apalachee Bay, strong storms occur every 40 years, not every 400 years as documented historically.

Paleotempestology

The Gulf of Mexico saw increased activity between 3,800 - 1,000 years ago with a fivefold increase of category 4-5 hurricane activity, and activity at St. Catherines Island and Wassaw Island was also higher between 2,000 and 1,100 years ago.

Paleotempestology

"700 yr sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England".

Paleotempestology

"Intense Southwest Florida hurricane landfalls over the past 1000 years".


The Massachusetts Bay Colony in 1635 experienced a Category 3 or 4 storm, with up to a 20-foot storm surge.

Air National Guard

The most severe damage came from a 30-plus-foot storm surge along the Mississippi coast and the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana and breaks in the levies along a canal in New Orleans.

Palm Beach County, Florida

Early on September 17, 1928, the Okeechobee hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach as a category-4 storm and crossed Lake Okeechobee shortly thereafter.

Palm Beach County, Florida

August 28, 1949, a category-4 hurricane struck West Palm Beach with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h), causing considerable damage.

Palm Beach County, Florida

Jeanne struck near the same location as a category-3 hurricane on September 26, 2004.

Palm Beach County, Florida

On October 24, 2005, Hurricane Wilma struck Collier County as a category-3 hurricane.


While such a storm does not happen in New England anymore, it happened again there in 1675, with elderly eyewitnesses comparing it to the 1635 storm.

1938 New England hurricane

The 1938 New England Hurricane (also referred to as the Great New England Hurricane, Long Island Express, and Yankee Clipper) was one of the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclones to strike Long Island, New York, and New England.

1938 New England hurricane

It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane in recorded New England history, perhaps eclipsed in landfall intensity only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.

1993 Storm of the Century

Readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida, and even lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England.

Winter storm naming in the United States:7

Winter Storm naming in the United States goes back to the 1700s when a snowstorm dubbed "The Great Snow of 1717" hit the colonies of New England in 1717.

Winter storm

Notable ice storms include an El Niño-related North American ice storm of 1998 that affected much of eastern Canada, including Montreal and Ottawa, as well as upstate New York and part of New England.


Nine years into that 11-year hurricane drought, a NASA scientist computed it as a 1-in-177-year event.

Climate of Florida

A statewide drought began in November 2005, one month after Hurricane Wilma's passage through the state, and persisted until 2009.

Global warming controversy

In a NASA report published in January 2013, Hansen and Sato noted "the 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing."

Hurricane Floyd

Following the state's fourth-worst drought in a century, the rains collected in rivers and streams, causing record flooding at 18 river gauges, and mostly affecting the Raritan, Passaic, and Delaware basins.

Natural disaster

Drought is the unusual dryness of soil caused by levels of rainfall significantly below average over a prolonged period.

Physical impacts of climate change

Between 2011 and 2014, California experienced the driest period in its recorded history and more than 100 million trees died in the drought, creating areas of dead, dry wood.


The 30 most costly hurricanes in U.S. history (according to federal data from January) show no increase in intensity over time.

Climate change in the United States

Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.

Hurricane Andrew

After spending a week without significantly strengthening itself in the central Atlantic, it rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5 hurricane while moving westward towards the Bahamas on August 23.

Hurricane Harvey

It is tied with 2005's Hurricane Katrina as the costliest tropical cyclone on record, inflicting $125 billion (2017 USD) in damage, primarily from catastrophic rainfall-triggered flooding in the Houston metropolitan area and Southeast Texas.

Hurricane Irma

The extremely powerful hurricane continued to intensify, with maximum sustained winds peaking at 180 mph (285 km/h) near 18:00 UTC on September 5.

Hurricane Irma

On September 4, Irma resumed intensifying, becoming a Category 5 hurricane by early on the next day.


The monetary cost of damages has increased dramatically in recent decades, but that is due to increasing population, wealth and the amount of vulnerable infrastructure.

Economics of global warming

Losses caused by catastrophes, defined by the property insurance industry as storms causing insured losses over $5 million in the year of occurrence, have grown steadily in the United States from about $100 million annually in the 1950s to $6 billion per year in the 1990s, and the annual number of catastrophes grew from 10 in the 1950s to 35 in the 1990s.” Authors have pointed to several reasons why commercial insurance markets cannot adequately cover risks associated with climate change (Arrow et al., 1996, p. 72).

Economics of global warming

(2001) concluded that: countries with limited economic resources, low levels of technology, poor information and skills, poor infrastructure, unstable or weak institutions, and inequitable empowerment and access to resources have little adaptive capacity and are highly vulnerable to climate change (p. 879).

Neoliberalism

Others note that while the economy had stabilized and was growing by the late 1980s, inequality widened: nearly 45% of the population had fallen into poverty while the wealthiest 10% had seen their incomes rise by 83%.

Neoliberalism

Additionally, the percentage of the Chilean population living in poverty rose from 17% in 1969 to 45% in 1985 at the same time government budgets for education, health and housing dropped by over 20% on average.

United States

Despite income and wealth disparities, the United States continues to rank very high in measures of socioeconomic performance, including average wage, median income, median wealth, human development, per capita GDP, and worker productivity.


But abnormal temperature spikes in February and earlier this month have left it vulnerable to winds, which have pushed the ice further away from the coast than at any time since satellite records began in the 1970s.”

Antarctica

A lower air temperature of −94.7 °C (−138.5 °F) was recorded in 2010 by satellite—however, it may be influenced by ground temperatures and was not recorded at a height of 7 feet (2 m) above the surface as required for the official air temperature records.

Precipitation

Extratropical cyclones can bring cold and dangerous conditions with heavy rain and snow with winds exceeding 119 km/h (74 mph), (sometimes referred to as windstorms in Europe).

Santa Ana winds

During Santa Ana conditions it is typically hotter along the coast than in the deserts, with the Southern California coastal region reaching some of its highest annual temperatures in autumn rather than summer.

Santa Ana winds

Like the Santa Ana, these winds also heat up by compression and lose humidity, but because they start out so extraordinarily cold and dry and blow over snow and ice all the way to the sea, the perceived similarity is negligible.

West Coast of the United States

The coastline sees significantly mild temperatures when compared to the inland areas during summer.


“During the sunless winter, a heatwave raised concerns that the polar vortex may be eroding.

2013–14 North American winter

On December 1, 2013, the weakening of the polar vortex led to the beginning of an abnormally cold trend in the Eastern and Central United States.

Early 2014 North American cold wave

The polar vortex Beginning on January 2, 2014, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)[dubious – discuss] led to the breakdown of the semi-permanent feature across the Arctic known as the polar vortex.

Polar vortex

The general assumption is that reduced snow cover and sea ice reflect less sunlight and therefore evaporation and transpiration increases, which in turn alters the pressure and temperature gradient of the polar vortex, causing it to weaken or collapse.

Stratosphere

This breaking is caused due to a highly non-linear interaction between the vertically propagating planetary waves and the isolated high potential vorticity region known as the polar vortex.

Winter 1985 cold wave

The winter 1985 cold wave was a meteorological event, the result of the shifting of the polar vortex farther south than is normally seen.


More than 100 climate models over the past 30 years did not predict what actually happened because it was assumed carbon dioxide had the pivotal role in driving climate change and that the effects of clouds, back-radiation and the sun were trivial.

Attribution of recent climate change:191

Attribution of recent climate change

Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change.

Attribution of recent climate change:197

Attribution of recent climate change

(2007) allowed for the possibility that climate models had been underestimated the effect of solar forcing.

Global warming

Computer models are run on supercomputers to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.

Global warming

"How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change".

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:113

They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.


Climate projections also assume that planet Earth is not dynamic

Climate model

This model has the advantage of allowing a rational dependence of local albedo and emissivity on temperature – the poles can be allowed to be icy and the equator warm – but the lack of true dynamics means that horizontal transports have to be specified.

Climate

These models predict an upward trend in the global mean surface temperature, with the most rapid increase in temperature being projected for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Coriolis force

In meteorology and oceanography, it is convenient to postulate a rotating frame of reference wherein the Earth is stationary.

Earth

The angle of Earth's axial tilt is relatively stable over long periods of time.

Future of Earth

Despite such interactions, highly accurate simulations show that overall, Earth's orbit is likely to remain dynamically stable for billions of years into the future.


water vapour has been the main greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate

Carbon dioxide

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.

Carbon dioxide

Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.

Global warming

The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Greenhouse effect

The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.

Greenhouse gas

The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3).


For the past 4567 million years, the sun and the Earth’s orbit have driven climate change cycles.

Earth

Earth orbits the Sun at an average distance of about 150 million km (93 million mi) every 365.2564 mean solar days, or one sidereal year.

Earth

When combined with the Earth–Moon system's common orbit around the Sun, the period of the synodic month, from new moon to new moon, is 29.53 days.

Global warming

increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Ice age

The Milankovitch cycles are a set of cyclic variations in characteristics of the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Little Ice Age

Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age.


Since then, the planet has been cooling on a millennial scale

Holocene

"Centennial-scale climate cooling with a sudden event around 8,200 years ago".

Little Ice Age

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.

Little Ice Age

In the North Atlantic, sediments accumulated since the end of the last ice age, nearly 12,000 years ago, show regular increases in the amount of coarse sediment grains deposited from icebergs melting in the now open ocean, indicating a series of 1–2 °C (2–4 °F) cooling events recurring every 1,500 years or so.

Little Ice Age

Little Ice Age

The rate of Arctic cooling is roughly 0.02 °C per century.


Just 1.25 per cent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere-ocean system has been released by humans in the past 250 years.

Carbon dioxide

Human activities emit about 29 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, while volcanoes emit between 0.2 and 0.3 billion tons.

Carbon dioxide

Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere and is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.

Carbon dioxide

The oceans act as an enormous carbon sink, and have taken up about a third of CO 2 emitted by human activity.

Carbon dioxide

Most of the CO 2 taken up by the ocean, which is about 30% of the total released into the atmosphere, forms carbonic acid in equilibrium with bicarbonate.

Planetary boundaries

About one quarter of the additional carbon dioxide generated by humans is dissolved in the oceans, where it forms carbonic acid.


Our evolving dynamic planet has survived sea level changes of hundreds of metres

Earth

Earth's hydrosphere consists chiefly of the oceans, but technically includes all water surfaces in the world, including inland seas, lakes, rivers, and underground waters down to a depth of 2,000 m (6,600 ft).

Earth

This is predicted to produce changes such as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, more extreme temperature ranges, significant changes in weather and a global rise in average sea levels.

Earth

More precisely, the geoid is the surface of gravitational equipotential at mean sea level.

Marine life

Earth's hydrosphere consists chiefly of the oceans, but technically includes all water surfaces in the world, including inland seas, lakes, rivers, and underground waters down to a depth of 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) The deepest underwater location is Challenger Deep of the Mariana Trench in the Pacific Ocean, having a depth of 10,900 metres (6.8 mi).

Tsunami

Run up is measured in metres above a reference sea level.


Our evolving dynamic planet has survived[…] mass extinctions

Earth

In the history of life on Earth, biodiversity has gone through long periods of expansion, occasionally punctuated by mass extinctions.

Earth

Following the Cambrian explosion, 535 Mya, there have been five mass extinctions.

Evolution

The Holocene extinction event is an ongoing mass extinction associated with humanity's expansion across the globe over the past few thousand years.

Future of Earth

This has resulted in a widespread, ongoing mass extinction of other species during the present geological epoch, now known as the Holocene extinction.

Nature

The last mass extinction occurred some 66 million years ago, when a meteorite collision probably triggered the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other large reptiles, but spared small animals such as mammals.


South Australia is winning: it has the most unreliable grid in the world outside Africa and the most expensive electricity.

Adelaide

[citation needed] South Australia has the highest retail price for electricity in the country.

Adelaide

"FactCheck: does South Australia have the 'highest energy prices' in the nation and 'the least reliable grid'?".

South Australia

South Australia has the lead over other Australian states for its commercialisation and commitment to renewable energy.

South Australia

It is now the leading producer of wind power in Australia.

South Australia

Renewable energy is a growing source of electricity in South Australia, and there is potential for growth from this particular industry of the state's economy.


When South Australians buy electricity at $14,200/MWh, they are paying the equivalent of $400 a litre for petrol.

Energy policy of India

The retail price of petrol is 75.00 Rs/litre in 2012-13.

Energy policy of India

The affordable electricity retail price (860 kcal/kWh at 75% input electricity to shaft power efficiency) to replace petrol (lower heating value 7693 kcal/litre at 33% fuel energy to crank shaft efficiency) is 19.06 Rs/kWh.

Kilowatt hour

The kilowatt-hour (kWh, also kW⋅h or kW h) is a unit of energy equal to 3600 kilojoules (3.6 megajoules).

National Electricity Market

Solar power

As of 2018, the unsubsidised levelised cost of electricity for utility scale solar power is around $43/MWh.


Never mind that the emissions of carbon dioxide to make and maintain a wind or solar industrial complex are far greater than they will ever save.

Carbon dioxide

Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.

Carbon footprint

Some potential options to increase energy efficiency include, but are not limited to: Waste heat recovery systems Insulation for large buildings and combustion chambers Technology upgrades, ie different light sources, lower consumption machines Carbon Footprints from energy consumption can be reduced through the development of alternative energy projects, such as solar and wind energy, which are renewable resources.

Coal

The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming.

Engine

Also, resulting greenhouse gas emissions, chiefly carbon dioxide, from the widespread use of engines in the modern industrialized world is contributing to the global greenhouse effect – a primary concern regarding global warming.

Fossil fuel power station

Electricity generation using carbon-based fuels is responsible for a large fraction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide and for 34% of U.S. man-made carbon dioxide emissions in 2010.


Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a ‘hothouse’ state

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (2005 conference):28

Global warming

A concern is that self-reinforcing feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a hothouse climate state even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or eliminated.

Paris Agreement

Climate Action Tracker "Domino-effect of climate events could push Earth into a 'hothouse' state".

Runaway greenhouse effect

"Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a 'hothouse' state".

Tipping points in the climate system

Self-reinforcing feedbacks in the carbon cycle and planetary reflectivity could trigger a cascading set of tipping points that lead the world into a hothouse climate state.


Previous studies have shown that weakening carbon sinks will add 0.25°C, forest dieback will add 0.11°C, permafrost thaw will add 0.9°C and increased bacterial respiration will add 0.02°C.

Atmospheric methane

The Woods Hole Research Center, citing two 2015 studies on permafrost carbon says there may be a self-reinforcing tipping point where an estimated equivalent of 205 gigatons of carbon dioxide in the form of methane could cause up to 0.5 °C (up to 0.9 °F) warming by the end of the century, which would trigger more warming.

Climate change feedback

Farquharson and her team guess that about 231,000 square miles (600,000 square kilometers) of permafrost, or about 5.5% of the zone that is permafrost year-round, is vulnerable to rapid surface thawing.

Climate change in the Arctic

According to a study published in 2016, about 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) of the warming in the Arctic has been attributed to reductions in sulfate aerosols in Europe since 1980.

Permafrost

"1.5C rise in temperature enough to start permafrost melt, scientists warn".

Permafrost

A global temperature rise of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above current levels would be enough to start the thawing of permafrost in Siberia, according to one group of scientists.


We note that the Earth has never in its history had a quasi-stable state that is around 2C warmer than the preindustrial and suggest that there is substantial risk that the system, itself, will ‘want’ to continue warming because of all of these other processes – even if we stop emissions,” she said.

Global warming

Global warming

A 2018 study tried to identify such a planetary threshold for self-reinforcing feedbacks and found that even a 2 °C (3.6 °F) increase in temperature over pre-industrial levels may be enough to trigger such a hothouse Earth scenario.

Global warming

Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).

Planetary boundaries

The scientists raise the possibility that even if greenhouse gas emissions are substantially reduced to limit warming to 2 degrees, that might be the "threshold" at which self-reinforcing climate feedbacks add additional warming until the climate system stabilizes in a hothouse climate state.

Planetary boundaries

Study author Katherine Richardson stresses, "We note that the Earth has never in its history had a quasi-stable state that is around 2 °C warmer than the preindustrial and suggest that there is substantial risk that the system, itself, will ‘want’ to continue warming because of all of these other processes – even if we stop emissions.


The heatwave we now have in Europe is not something that was expected with just 1C of warming

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

Ruse, Bulgaria hit 36.6 °C (97.9 °F) on the 13th making it the warmest spot in Europe.

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

A heat wave started in Moscow on the 27 June, as temperatures reached 33.1 °C (91.6 °F), and stayed around 30 °C (90 °F) for the rest of the week.

2018 British Isles heat wave

2018's temperature was 16.1 °C (61.0 °F), meaning it ranks as the 18th warmest June recorded in England in the past 359 years, also being the warmest since 1976.

Heat wave

June 2019 was the hottest month on record worldwide, the effects of this were especially prominent in Europe.

Heat wave

The effects of climate change have been projected to make heat waves in places such as Europe up to five times more likely to occur.


The jet stream controls broad weather patterns, such as high-pressure and low-pressure systems.

Cyclone

A polar cyclone is a low-pressure weather system, usually spanning 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) to 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi), in which the air circulates in a counterclockwise direction in the northern hemisphere, and a clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere.

Cyclone

A polar low is a small-scale, short-lived atmospheric low-pressure system (depression) that is found over the ocean areas poleward of the main polar front in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Extratropical cyclone

Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth.

Extratropical cyclone

These types of cyclones are defined as large scale (synoptic) low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth.

Jet stream

This causes surface low pressure and higher pressure at altitude.


The extent of climate change’s influence on the jet stream is an intense subject of research.

Arctic sea ice decline

Based on effects of Arctic amplification (warming) and ice loss, a study in 2015 concluded that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently in the past two decades, and that such patterns can not be tied to certain seasons.

Cloud

As a consequence, much research has focused on the response of low and vertical clouds to a changing climate.

Hurricane Harvey

The relationship between climate change and the frequency of hurricanes (or tropical cyclones) is still unclear, and is the subject of continuing research.

Jet stream

Climatological Studies of the Influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation Events in the Precipitation Pattern Over South America During Austral Summer.

Jet stream

The factors that control the number of jet streams in a planetary atmosphere is an active area of research in dynamical meteorology.


Last year, scientists published evidence that the conditions leading up to “stuck jet streams” are becoming more common, with warming in the Arctic seen as a likely culprit.

Arctic Ocean

Warming temperatures in the Arctic may cause large amounts of fresh meltwater to enter the north Atlantic, possibly disrupting global ocean current patterns.

Arctic sea ice decline

One of the study researchers noted, "The expectation is that with further sea ice decline, temperatures in the Arctic will continue to rise, and so will methane emissions from northern wetlands."

Arctic sea ice decline

Global warming

Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming more erratic.

Jet stream

Trends such as Arctic sea ice decline, reduced snow cover, evapotranspiration patterns, and other weather anomalies have caused the Arctic to heat up faster than other parts of the globe (polar amplification).


Gone are the days when scientists drew a bright line dividing weather and climate.

Alpine climate

Alpine climate is the typical weather (climate) for the regions above the tree line.

Climate

If the air mass is colder than the ground below it, it is labeled k. If the air mass is warmer than the ground below it, it is labeled w. While air mass identification was originally used in weather forecasting during the 1950s, climatologists began to establish synoptic climatologies based on this idea in 1973.

Köppen climate classification

These climates are in the polar front region in winter, and thus have moderate temperatures and changeable, rainy weather.

Oceanic climate

With the air coming from the ocean predominates the cloudy weather with constant precipitation even in the colder months and the temperature is strongly enlivened.

Weather

Aside from climatic changes that have caused the gradual drift of populations (for example the desertification of the Middle East, and the formation of land bridges during glacial periods), extreme weather events have caused smaller scale population movements and intruded directly in historical events.


The heaviest precipitation events will become more frequent and more extreme.

Climate of India

Almost all of India is flood-prone, and extreme precipitation events, such as flash floods and torrential rains, have become increasingly common in central India over the past several decades, coinciding with rising temperatures.

Rain

"Global Measured Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation".

Supercell

This is generally the area of heaviest and most widespread precipitation.

Tropical cyclone

The eyewall is where the greatest wind speeds are found, air rises most rapidly, clouds reach their highest altitude, and precipitation is the heaviest.

Uruguay

The heaviest precipitation occurs during the autumn months, although more frequent rainy spells occur in winter.


In Alaska, brown bears are changing their feeding habits to eat elderberries that ripen earlier.

Brown bear

They often feed on a variety of plant life, including berries, grasses, flowers, acorns and pine cones, as well as fungi such as mushrooms.

Brown bear

Fruits, including berries, become increasingly important during summer and early autumn.

Brown bear

In the Kamchatka peninsula and several parts of coastal Alaska, brown bears feed mostly on spawning salmon, whose nutrition and abundance explain the enormous size of the bears in these areas.

Grizzly bear

Grizzlies in Alaska supplement their diet of salmon and clams with sedge grass and berries.

Kodiak bear

As climate change causes elderberries to ripen earlier, berry season is now overlapping with salmon season and some bears are abandoning salmon runs to focus on the berries.


The April low temperatures here are now about 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they used to be.

Climate of Chicago

At O'Hare, temperatures as low as 7 °F (−14 °C) and 31 °F (−1 °C) have been recorded as late as April 7 and May 21, respectively.

Florida

With an average daily temperature of 70.7 °F (21.5 °C), it is the warmest state in the U.S.

Montclair, New Jersey

From April to June and from September to early November, Montclair experiences temperatures from the lower 60s to the lower 70s.

New Jersey

Since 1895, average temperatures have climbed by almost 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, double the average for the other Lower 48 states.

Pago Pago

A temperature range of about three degrees Fahrenheit separates the average monthly temperatures of the coolest and hottest months.


Species that have a lot of plasticity tend to be generalists.

Effects of climate change on terrestrial animals:90

The American coyote is an example of a generalist.

Invasive species

Common invasive species traits include the following: Fast growth Rapid reproduction High dispersal ability Phenotype plasticity (the ability to alter growth form to suit current conditions) Tolerance of a wide range of environmental conditions (Ecological competence) Ability to live off of a wide range of food types (generalist) Association with humans Prior successful invasions Typically, an introduced species must survive at low population densities before it becomes invasive in a new location.

Invasive species

Intraspecific phenotypic plasticity, pre-adaptation and post-introduction evolution are all major factors in adaptive evolution.

Species

phenotypic plasticity, multiple life-cycle stages).

Vine

Vines are unique in that they have multiple evolutionary origins and a wide range of phenotypic plasticity.


And there is a lot of evidence that climate change is diminishing biodiversity, which can be seen in these alpine meadows as well.

Biodiversity

Climate change has proven to affect biodiversity and evidence supporting the altering effects is widespread.

Climate change in the Arctic

"Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change".

Deforestation and climate change

As development of the country's caused a decline in forest cover, a reduction in biodiversity was seen in those areas.

Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity:70

Increased temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significant impacting the composition of alpine herbfields.

Scientific consensus on climate change:677

Scientific consensus on climate change

The statement goes on to assert that "evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change."


current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming by as much as a factor of two

Global warming

"A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend".

Global warming

Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:128

Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.

Sea level rise

A conservative estimate of the long-term projections is that each Celsius degree of temperature rise triggers a sea level rise of approximately 2.3 meters (4.2 ft/degree Fahrenheit) over a period of two millennia: an example of climate inertia.

Sea level rise

"Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica".


This could mean the landmark Paris Climate Agreement – which seeks to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – may not be enough to ward off catastrophe.

Global warming

Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the Paris Agreement of 2016, the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold and current pledges by countries to cut emissions are inadequate to limit future warming.

Global warming

Parties associated with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.

Global warming

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C.

Paris Agreement

A 2018 published study points at a threshold at which temperatures could rise to 4 or 5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial levels, through self-reinforcing feedbacks in the climate system, suggesting this threshold is below the 2-degree temperature target, agreed upon by the Paris climate deal.

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C, recognizing that this would substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.


In looking at Earth’s past, scientists can predict what the future will look like

Big data

Fed by a large number of data on past experiences, algorithms can predict future development if the future is similar to the past.

Global catastrophic risk

Scientists do not predict that a natural ice age will occur anytime soon.

Global catastrophic risk

Historically, the ability of experts to predict the future over these timescales has proved very limited.

Physics

For example, in the study of the origin of the earth, one can reasonably model earth's mass, temperature, and rate of rotation, as a function of time allowing one to extrapolate forward or backward in time and so predict future or prior events.

Scientific method

Scientific inquiry generally aims to obtain knowledge in the form of testable explanations that scientists can use to predict the results of future experiments.


But as the change gets larger or more persistent … it appears they underestimate climate change

Atmospheric methane

indicates that current greenhouse gas reduction policies in the US are based on what appear to be significant underestimates of anthropogenic methane emissions.

Global warming

Models not only project different future temperature with different emissions of greenhouse gases, but also do not fully agree on the strength of different feedbacks on climate sensitivity and the amount of inertia of the system.

Global warming

Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.

Global warming

Abrupt climate change, tipping points in the climate system: Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes.

Global warming

"How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change".


The research also revealed how large areas of the polar ice caps could collapse and significant changes to ecosystems could see the Sahara Desert become green and the edges of tropical forests turn into fire-dominated savanna.

Regime shift

Bush encroachment refers to small changes in herbivory rates that can shift drylands from grassy dominated regimes towards woody dominated savannas.

Regime shift

Dryland degradation occurs when the loss of vegetation transforms an ecosystem from being vegetated to being dominated by bare soils.

Regime shift

Regime shifts in polar regions include the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the possible collapse of the thermohaline circulation system.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850

The potential for major sea level rise depends mostly on a significant melting of the polar ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica, as this is where the vast majority of glacial ice is located.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850

If all the ice on the polar ice caps were to melt away, the oceans of the world would rise an estimated 70 m (230 ft).


While an isolated heatwave can be put down as an anomaly, the scale of this phenomenon points to global warming as the culprit, scientists said.

Effects of global warming on human health:21

Another impact that the warming global temperature has had is on the frequency and severity of heat waves.

Global warming conspiracy theory

The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged at the end of the investigations.

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Instrumental temperature record

Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute temperatures.

Shutdown of thermohaline circulation

In response Quirin Schiermeier concluded that natural variation was the culprit for the observations but highlighted possible implications.


‘Summers keep getting hotter,’ said Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford, who conducted extensive research into data from the heatwave that spread Europe in June, July and August 2017.

London

Most recently in Summer 2018 and with much drier than average conditions prevailing from May to December.

Oxford

The highest temperature ever recorded in Oxford is 37.2 °C (99 °F) in July 2019 during the 2019 European heat wave.

Sweden

That, in turn, renders most of Sweden's southern areas having warmer summers than almost everywhere in the nearby British Isles, even matching temperatures found along the continental Atlantic coast as far south as in northern Spain.

University of Oxford

H. Rashdall, Universities of Europe, iii, 55–60.

University of Oxford

Students taking maths and computer science examinations in the summer of 2017 were given an extra 15 minutes to complete their papers, after dons ruled that "female candidates might be more likely to be adversely affected by time pressure" "Archived copy".


‘Heatwaves are far more intense than when my parents were growing up in the 1950s.

Heat wave

A heat wave, or heatwave, is a period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity, especially in oceanic climate countries.

Heat wave

The World Meteorological Organization, defines a heat wave as 5 or more consecutive days of prolonged heat in which the daily maximum temperature is higher than the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more.

Heat wave

Increased anthropogenic activities causing increased greenhouse gas emissions show that heat waves will be more severe.

Heat wave

"More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century".

Heat wave

's Heat Wave Duration Index is that a heat wave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961–1990.


‘If we do nothing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the kind of extreme heat we saw this past summer will be the norm when my young son is a grown man.’

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

CO 2 absorbs and emits infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm (asymmetric stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 µm (bending vibrational mode) and consequently is a greenhouse gas that plays a significant role in influencing Earth's surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.

Global warming

For example, bicycling reduces greenhouse gas emissions while reducing the effects of a sedentary lifestyle at the same time.

Scientific consensus on climate change:190

Scientific consensus on climate change

Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Years of Living Dangerously

He learns that "Earth could warm by more than 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) by 2100 if we don’t aggressively reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases", and that more frequent heat waves and droughts will contribute to food shortages, which can lead to greater conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.


the kind of extreme heat we saw this past summer will be the norm

Climate change in Australia

August 2018 was hotter and windier than the average.

Climate change in Australia

Summer 2013–14 was warmer than average for the entirety of Australia.

Perth

Summers are generally hot and dry, lasting from December to March, with February generally the hottest month.

Sydney

Under the Köppen–Geiger classification, Sydney has a humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with warm summers, cool winters and uniform rainfall throughout the year.

Sydney

The summer of 2007–08, however, proved to be the coolest since 1996–97 and is the only summer this century to be at or below average in temperatures.


On the other side of the Atlantic ocean, climates are typically milder as a result of the cooling from the Gulf Stream.

Atlantic Ocean

For example, the Gulf Stream helps moderate winter temperatures along the coastline of southeastern North America, keeping it warmer in winter along the coast than inland areas.

Atlantic Ocean

The Gulf Stream also keeps extreme temperatures from occurring on the Florida Peninsula.

Gulf Stream

Although there has been recent debate, there is consensus that the climate of Western Europe and Northern Europe is warmer than it would otherwise be due to the North Atlantic Current which is the northeastern section of the Gulf Stream.

Gulf Stream

East winds moving over this warm water move warm air from over the Gulf Stream inland, helping to keep temperatures milder across the state than elsewhere across the Southeast during the winter.

Norway

The coastal climate of Norway is exceptionally mild compared with areas on similar latitudes elsewhere in the world, with the Gulf Stream passing directly offshore the northern areas of the Atlantic coast, continuously warming the region in the winter.


But despite [the Gulf Stream], the summer of 2018 looks set to be one of the hottest on record.

Bahrain

Summer temperatures may reach up to 50 °C (122 °F) under the right conditions.

Gulf Stream

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension the North Atlantic Drift, is a warm and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and stretches to the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean as the North Atlantic Current.

Gulf Stream

By carrying warm water northeast across the Atlantic, it makes Western and especially Northern Europe warmer than it otherwise would be.

Gulf Stream

As it travels north, the warm water transported by the Gulf Stream undergoes evaporative cooling.

Gulf Stream

These two processes produce water that is denser and colder (or, more precisely, water that is still liquid at a lower temperature).


The sun was so intense, it took the mercury up to in excess of 120°F as it topped out at 122.4 °F (50.2°C).

Mercury (planet)

The surface temperature of Mercury ranges from 100 to 700 K (−173 to 427 °C; −280 to 800 °F) at the most extreme places: 0°N, 0°W, or 180°W.

Mercury (planet)

On the dark side of the planet, temperatures average 110 K. The intensity of sunlight on Mercury's surface ranges between 4.59 and 10.61 times the solar constant (1,370 W·m−2).

Mercury (planet)

Having almost no atmosphere to retain heat, it has surface temperatures that vary diurnally more than on any other planet in the Solar System, ranging from 100 K (−173 °C; −280 °F) at night to 700 K (427 °C; 800 °F) during the day across the equatorial regions.

Mercury (planet)

The polar regions are constantly below 180 K (−93 °C; −136 °F).

Sun

The Sun is a G2V star, with G2 indicating its surface temperature of approximately 5,778 K (5,505 °C, 9,941 °F), and V that it, like most stars, is a main-sequence star.


Their ECS estimate is 1.5 degrees, with a probability range between 1.05 and 2.45 degrees.

Climate sensitivity

As estimated by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), "there is high confidence that ECS is extremely unlikely less than 1°C and medium confidence that the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C and very unlikely greater than 6°C".

Climate sensitivity

The IPCC literature assessment estimates that TCR likely lies between 1 °C and 2.5 °C.

Climate sensitivity

IPCC authors concluded ECS is very likely to be greater than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and likely to lie in the range 2 to 4.5 °C (4 to 8.1 °F), with a most likely value of about 3 °C (5 °F).

Climate sensitivity

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report reverted to the earlier range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C (2.7 to 8.1 °F) (high confidence) because some estimates using industrial-age data came out low.

Climate sensitivity

They also stated that ECS is extremely unlikely to be less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) (high confidence), and is very unlikely to be greater than 6 °C (11 °F) (medium confidence).


But it is part of a long list of studies from independent teams (as this interactive graphic shows), using a variety of methods that take account of critical challenges, all of which conclude that climate models exhibit too much sensitivity to greenhouse gases.

Climate change adaptation

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 2050 (AMMA-2050) aim to address the challenges of understanding how the monsoon will change in future decades, to 2050, and how this information can be most effectively used to support climate-compatible development in the region.

Global warming controversy

A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".

Global warming controversy

Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.

Scientific consensus on climate change:32

Scientific consensus on climate change

Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.

Scientific consensus on climate change:65

Scientific consensus on climate change

The Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (October 2017) provided the following summary: This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.


It shows that ECS is probably between two and 4.5 degrees, possibly as low as 1.5 but not lower, and possibly as high as nine degrees.

Bachelor's degree

Ordinary degrees are at level 9 and require 360 credits with a minimum of 90 at level 9.

Degrees of freedom (physics and chemistry):28

a diatomic molecule) in a 3-D space with constant distance between them (let's say d) we can show (below) its degrees of freedom to be 5.

Equator

The latitude of the Earth's equator is, by definition, 0° (zero degrees) of arc.

Master's degree

Taught master's degrees are normally one to two year courses, rated at 60 - 120 ECTS credits, while research master's degrees are normally two year courses, either rated at 120 ECTS credits or not credit rated.

Six degrees of separation

The average separation for all users of the application is 5.73 degrees, whereas the maximum degree of separation is 12.


If ECS is as low as the Energy Balance literature suggests, it means that the climate models we have been using for decades run too hot and need to be revised.

Global warming controversy

Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, stated that the "surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models.

Global warming controversy

Global warming

In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO 2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age.

Global warming

Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.

They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.


Whether Antarctic mass loss keeps worsening depends on choices made today

Antarctica

"Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses".

Ice sheet

The Greenland, and possibly the Antarctic, ice sheets have been losing mass recently, because losses by ablation including outlet glaciers exceed accumulation of snowfall.

Sea level rise

Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand, but at other times choices have to be made among different strategies.

Sea level rise

All datasets generally show an acceleration of mass loss from the Antarctic ice-sheet, but with year-to-year variations.

Sea level rise

A 2019 study, however, using different methodology, concluded that East Antarctica is losing significant amounts of ice mass.


That’s because as Antarctica’s mass shrinks, the ice sheet’s gravitational pull on the ocean relaxes somewhat, and the seas travel back across the globe to pile up far away — with U.S. coasts being one prime destination.”

Antarctica

Melting of floating ice shelves (ice that originated on the land) does not in itself contribute much to sea-level rise (since the ice displaces only its own mass of water).

Antarctica

However, it is the outflow of the ice from the land to form the ice shelf which causes a rise in global sea level.

Post-glacial rebound

During deglaciation, the melted ice water returns to the oceans, thus sea level in the ocean increases again.

Sea level rise

With the loss of mass, the gravitational pull becomes less and local water levels might drop.

Sea level rise

The additional snowfall causes increased ice flow of the ice sheet into the ocean, so that the mass gain due to snowfall is partially compensated.


The Rio Grande is a classic “feast or famine” river, with a dry year or two typically followed by a couple of wet years that allow for recovery.

Köppen climate classification

s indicates at least three times as much rain in the wettest month of winter as in the driest month of summer.

Köppen climate classification

Winters are noticeable and dry, and summers can be very rainy.

Rio Grande

Because of both drought and overuse, the section from El Paso downstream through Ojinaga was recently tagged "The Forgotten River" by those wishing to bring attention to the river's deteriorated condition.

Temperate climate

In these regions winters are quite dry and summers have very heavy rainfall.

Temperate climate

Mediterranean Climates, opposite to the humid subtropical and monsoonal climates, have a dry summer, with rainfall in the winter and cooler months.


If warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions make wet years less wet and dry years even drier, as scientists anticipate, year-to-year recovery will become more difficult.

Effects of global warming

Prolonged periods of warmer temperatures typically cause soil and underbrush to be drier for longer periods, increasing the risk of wildfires.

Effects of global warming

In other words, regions which are dry at present will in general become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will in general become even wetter.

Effects of global warming

If GHG emissions grow a lot (IPCC scenario RCP8.5), already dry regions may have more droughts and less soil moisture.

Global warming

Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead.

Physical impacts of climate change

In other words, regions which are dry at present will generally become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will generally become even wetter.