The effect of long-term warming is to make it harder to count on snowmelt runoff in wet times

Cryosphere

Climate warming is expected to result in major changes to the partitioning of snow and rainfall, and to the timing of snowmelt, which will have important implications for water use and management.

Global warming

Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants.

Lake Tahoe

There is a pronounced annual runoff of snowmelt in late spring and early summer, the timing of which varies from year to year.

Season creep

Modeling of snowmelt predicted that warming of 3 to 5 °C in the Western United States could cause snowmelt-driven runoff to occur as much as two months earlier, with profound effects on hydroelectricity, land use, agriculture, and water management.

Snow

Some agricultural areas depend on an accumulation of snow during winter that will melt gradually in spring, providing water for crop growth, both directly and via runoff through streams and rivers, which supply irrigation canals.


Last year, though, was a wet one on the Rio Grande, with a strong snowpack in the winter of 2016-17 that allowed the conservancy district to store water in upstream reservoirs.

Colorado River

In November 2012, the U.S. and Mexico reached an agreement, known as Minute 319, permitting Mexico storage of its water allotment in U.S. reservoirs during wet years, thus increasing the efficiency with which the water can be used.

Glen Canyon Dam

Since then, the reservoir has slowly regained water storage, but has not filled due to fluctuating runoff levels and its obligated release to Lake Mead.

Glen Canyon Dam

At the end of water year 2017 (September 30), the lake level was 3,628 feet (1,106 m), and at 60 percent of capacity.

Glen Canyon Dam

With the Glen Canyon site out of the question, the initial need for a reservoir was realized in 1936 with the completion of Hoover Dam in Black Canyon, storing 32 million acre feet (39 km3) in the mammoth reservoir of Lake Mead.

Glen Canyon Dam

Without storage reservoirs of their own, the Upper Basin states risked a "call" on the Colorado River during drought years: they would be forced to use less water in order to keep the river flowing to Lake Mead and California, the state with the most senior water rights.


Temperatures in the Southwest increased by nearly two degrees Fahrenheit (one degree Celsius) from 1901 to 2010, and some climate models forecast a total rise of six degrees or more by the end of this century.

Climate change in the United States

In it was the prediction that on our current course the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees Fahrenheit (or about 3.9 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century.

Climate change in the United States

For example, based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and results from the United Kingdom Hadley Centre's climate model (HadCM2), a model that accounts for both greenhouse gases and aerosols, by 2100 temperatures in Idaho could increase by 5 °F (2.8 °C) (with a range of 2-9 °F) in winter and summer and 4 °F (2.2 °C) (with a range of 2-7 °F) in spring and fall.

Climate change in the United States

"A projected increase of 4.05 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature is expected by 2065, and a projected increase of 9.37 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature can be expected by the turn of the century if nothing is done to curb emissions.

Climate change in the United States

The average annual temperature in South Dakota has increased by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of the 20th century, and most of that warming has occurred in winter and spring.

Permian

Based on the amount of lava estimated to have been produced during this period, the worst-case scenario is the release of enough carbon dioxide from the eruptions to raise world temperatures five degrees Celsius.


Dr. Gutzler said spring temperatures have an impact, too, with warmer air causing more snow to turn to vapor and essentially disappear.

Effects of global warming

Global warming

Precipitation

Because of this temperature difference, warmth and moisture are transported upward, condensing into vertically oriented clouds (see satellite picture) which produce snow showers.

Snow

Moisture is removed by orographic lift, leaving drier, warmer air on the descending, leeward side.

Thunderstorm

As the water vapor condenses into liquid, latent heat is released, which warms the air, causing it to become less dense than the surrounding, drier air.


A longer and warmer growing season also has an effect, Dr. Overpeck said, as plants take up more water, further reducing stream flows.

Climate change and agriculture

Increased temperatures and altered hydrological cycles are predicted to translate to shorter growing seasons, overall reduced biomass production, and lower grain yields.

Climate change and agriculture

A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished.

Climate change and agriculture

While warmer temperatures create longer growing seasons, and faster growth rates for plants, it also increases the metabolic rate and number of breeding cycles of insect populations.

List of ecoregions in North America (CEC):1175

As climate change more rapidly progresses, temperature increases will affect the length of the growing season.

Season creep

While summer growing seasons are expanding, winters are getting warmer and shorter, resulting in reduced winter ice cover on bodies of water, earlier ice-out, earlier melt water flows, and earlier spring lake level peaks.


The noted oceanographer Walter Munk referred to sea-level rise as an “enigma”

Sea level rise

"Scientists discover evidence for past high-level sea rise".

Sea level rise

"Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era".

Sea level rise

"Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific".

Seamount

They are defined by oceanographers as independent features that rise to at least 1,000 m (3,281 ft) above the seafloor, characteristically of conical form.

Walter Munk

This work described what came to be known as "Munk's enigma", a large discrepancy between observed rate of sea level rise and its expected effects on the earth's rotation.


I note particularly that sea-level rise is not affected by the warming; it continues at the same rate, 1.8 millimeters a year, according to a 1990 review by Andrew S. Trupin and John Wahr.

Global warming

Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.

Sea level rise

For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone.

Sea level rise

The last time the Earth was 2 °C (3.6 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, sea levels were at least 5 metres (16 ft) higher than now: this was when warming because of changes in the amount of sunlight due to slow changes in the Earth's orbit caused the last interglacial.

Sea level rise

Data collected by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 mm (0.13 in) per year, a doubling of the rate during the 20th century.

Sea level rise

The sea-level rise due to Antarctica has been estimated to be 0.25 mm per year from 1993–2005, and 0.42 mm per year from 2005 to 2015.


The trend has been measured by a network of tidal gauges, many of which have been collecting data for over a century.

Sea level rise

More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century.

Sea level rise

"One of the most striking trends – over a century of global-average sea level change".

Sea level rise

Earlier satellite measurements were previously slightly at odds with tide gauge measurements.

Sea level rise

Another important source of sea-level observations is the global network of tide gauges.

Sea level rise


as continents rise after the overlying ice has melted

Geology of Scotland

Sea levels rose as the Ordovician ice sheets melted, and tectonic movements created major faults which assembled the outline of Scotland from previously scattered fragments.

Karoo Supergroup

As Gondwana drifted away from the South Pole, the glaciers melted, leaving a vast inland sea, extending across South Africa, and neighboring regions of Gondwana.

Overdeepening

Water flowing down the headwall gains energy, which melts the surrounding ice, creating channels.

Overdeepening

As the water passes through the bottom, it continues to drop in temperature; since it is highly pressurized at this point, the melting temperature is suppressed and the water becomes supercooled as it melts surrounding ice.

Plate tectonics

The addition of water lowers the melting point of the mantle material above the subducting slab, causing it to melt.


I conclude that it must be ice accumulation, through evaporation of ocean water, and subsequent precipitation turning into ice.

Flood

Some precipitation evaporates, some slowly percolates through soil, some may be temporarily sequestered as snow or ice, and some may produce rapid runoff from surfaces including rock, pavement, roofs, and saturated or frozen ground.

Sea level rise

Each year about 8 mm (0.31 in) of precipitation (liquid equivalent) falls on the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, mostly as snow, which accumulates and over time forms glacial ice.

Sea level rise

Much of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface.

Snow

It consists of frozen crystalline water throughout its life cycle, starting when, under suitable conditions, the ice crystals form in the atmosphere, increase to millimeter size, precipitate and accumulate on surfaces, then metamorphose in place, and ultimately melt, slide or sublimate away.

Water

precipitation, from water vapor condensing from the air and falling to the earth or ocean.


Currently, sea-level rise does not seem to depend on ocean temperature, and certainly not on CO2.

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

This depth depends on (among other things) temperature and the amount of CO 2 dissolved in the ocean.

Sea level rise

This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers.

Sea level rise

The heat needed to raise an average temperature increase of the entire world ocean by 0.01 °C would increase the atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C.

Sea level rise

Thus, a small change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system.

Sea level

Atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean temperature changes can affect LMSL as well.


But there is also good data showing sea levels

Coral

By analyzing the various growth morphologies, microatolls offer a low resolution record of sea level change.

Global warming

Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.

Global warming

Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.

Global warming

Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.

Great Salt Lake

Water levels have been recorded since 1875, averaging about 4,200 feet (1,280 m) above sea level.


By 2100 the seas will rise another 6 inches or so—a far cry from Al Gore’s alarming numbers

Mediterranean Sea

[citation needed] By 2100 the overall level of the Mediterranean could rise between 3 to 61 cm (1.2 to 24.0 in) as a result of the effects of climate change.

Mediterranean Sea

A 30 cm (12 in) rise in sea level would flood 200 square kilometres (77 sq mi) of the Nile Delta, displacing over 500,000 Egyptians.

Mediterranean Sea

Sea level rise for the next century (2100) could be between 30 cm (12 in) and 100 cm (39 in) and temperature shifts of a mere 0.05–0.1 °C in the deep sea are sufficient to induce significant changes in species richness and functional diversity.

Mediterranean Sea

"Mediterranean Sea Level Could Rise By Over Two Feet, Global Models Predict".

Sea

The pH is expected to reach 7.7 (representing a 3-fold increase in hydrogen ion concentration) by the year 2100, which is a significant change in a century.


Mr. Singer is a professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.

Fred Singer

Siegfried Fred Singer (born September 27, 1924) is an Austrian-born American physicist and emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia.

Fred Singer

Singer accepted a professorship in Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia in 1971, a position he held until 1994, where he taught classes on environmental issues such as ozone depletion, acid rain, climate change, population growth, and public policy issues related to oil and energy.

Fred Singer

When he retired from Virginia in 1994, he became Distinguished Research Professor at the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University until 2000.

Fred Singer

He held a professorship with the University of Virginia from 1971 until 1994, and with George Mason University until 2000.

The Great Global Warming Swindle

Patrick Michaels – Research Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia Patrick Moore – Early member of Greenpeace and former president, Greenpeace Canada Paul Reiter – Professor, Department of Medical Entomology, Pasteur Institute, Paris Nir Shaviv – Professor, Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem James Shikwati – Economist, Author, and CEO of The African Executive Frederick Singer – Professor Emeritus, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (Misidentified in the film as Former Director, U.S. National Weather Service.


Some experts think we’re on track to hit 550 ppm by the end of the century, which would cause average global temperatures to rise by 6 degrees Celsius

20th century

The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880; Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20 °C per decade.

Global warming

Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.

Global warming

Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.

Greenhouse gas

The oft-cited Mauna Loa average for 2012 is 393.8 ppm, which is a good approximation although typically about 1 ppm higher than the spatial average given above.

Nuclear holocaust

In one model, the average temperature of Earth following a full thermonuclear war falls for several years by 7 to 8 degrees Celsius (13 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit) on average.


an individual heatwave triggering coral bleaching cannot be linked to global warming as the process triggering an individual heatwave is fundamentally different from that triggering global warming

Coral bleaching

While localized triggers lead to localized bleaching, the large scale coral bleaching events of the recent years have been triggered by global warming.

Coral bleaching

A global mass coral bleaching has been occurring since 2014 because of the highest recorded temperatures plaguing oceans.

Coral bleaching

"Diversity of Corals, Algae in Warm Indian Ocean Suggests Resilience to Future Global Warming".

Coral reef

Similar rapid adaption may protect coral reefs from global warming.

Great Barrier Reef

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority considers the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef to be climate change, causing ocean warming which increases coral bleaching.


Scientists just discovered a massive, heretofore unknown, source of nitrogen

Nitrogen fixation

Biological nitrogen fixation was discovered by German agronomist Hermann Hellriegel and Dutch microbiologist Martinus Beijerinck.

Nitrogen

It was first discovered and isolated by Scottish physician Daniel Rutherford in 1772.

Nitrogen

Dinitrogen difluoride (N2F2) exists as thermally interconvertible cis and trans isomers, and was first found as a product of the thermal decomposition of FN3.

Nitrogen

The discovery of nitrogen is attributed to the Scottish physician Daniel Rutherford in 1772, who called it noxious air.

Nitrogen

It is one of the three most used acids (the other two being sulfuric acid and hydrochloric acid) and was first discovered by the alchemists in the 13th century.


If Houlton’s finding about these vast, previously unknown nitrogen stores holds true, then it would have an enormous impact on global warming predictions.

Arctic

Climate models predict much greater warming in the Arctic than the global average, resulting in significant international attention to the region.

General circulation model

In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100.

Global cooling

By the 1970s, scientists were becoming increasingly aware that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945, as well as the possibility of large scale warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global cooling

When the model included estimated changes in solar intensity, it gave a reasonable match to temperatures over the previous thousand years and its prediction was that "CO 2 warming dominates the surface temperature patterns soon after 1980."

Peak oil

A consensus was emerging that parties to an international agreement would introduce measures to constrain the combustion of hydrocarbons in an effort to limit global temperature rise to the nominal 2 °C that scientists predicted would limit environmental harm to tolerable levels.


‘there will not be enough nitrogen available to sustain the high carbon uptake scenarios.’

Carnivorous plant

The net uptake of carbon dioxide, and therefore, the plant's potential for growth, must be positive for the plant to survive.

Climate change and agriculture

Studies have shown that higher CO2 levels lead to reduced plant uptake of nitrogen (and a smaller number showing the same for trace elements such as zinc) resulting in crops with lower nutritional value.

Climate change and agriculture

However, because the ratio of soil organic carbon to nitrogen is mediated by soil biology such that it maintains a narrow range, a doubling of soil organic carbon is likely to imply a doubling in the storage of nitrogen in soils as organic nitrogen, thus providing higher available nutrient levels for plants, supporting higher yield potential.

Miscanthus giganteus

dead leaves), direct humus accumulation, the well-developed and deep-reaching root system, the low decomposition rates of plant residues due to a high C : N ratio (carbon to nitrogen ratio), and the absence of tillage and subsequently less soil aeration are the reasons for the high carbon sequestration rates.

Miscanthus giganteus

The authors note that due to the high carbon to nitrogen ratio it is in the field's margins and interspersed woodlands that the majority of the food resources are to be found.


“Houlton has been exploring this possibility for years.

Farleigh Hungerford Castle

Edward later fell out with the king over the proposal that the Roman Catholic James II should succeed to the throne on Charles's death, and after the discovery of the Rye House Plot in 1683 the castle was searched by royal officials looking for stocks of weapons that might be used in a possible revolt.

Farleigh Hungerford Castle

Kightly suggests that the castle was sold to the Houlton family in 1705, rather than 1730; Jackson disagrees.

Marcus Davis

Both fighters are former boxers and had discussed a potential fight in their futures since early 2008.

Thirty Years' War

The Last Valley (1959), by John Pick, is about two men fleeing the Thirty Years' War.

Thirty Years' War

The Last Valley (1971) is a film starring Michael Caine and Omar Sharif, who discover a temporary haven from the Thirty Years' War.


The Arctic’s carbon bomb might be even more potent than we thought […] methane, a shorter-lived but far harder-hitting gas that could cause faster bursts of warming

Arctic Ocean

Melting of this ice may release large quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, causing further warming in a strong positive feedback cycle and marine genus and species to become extinct.

Arctic methane emissions

Melting of this ice may release large quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, causing further warming in a strong positive feedback cycle.

Arctic

The current Arctic warming is leading to ancient carbon being released from thawing permafrost, leading to methane and carbon dioxide production by micro-organisms.

Arctic

Release of methane and carbon dioxide stored in permafrost could cause abrupt and severe global warming, as they are potent greenhouse gases.

Climate change feedback

Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of carbon (potentially as methane) in the arctic.


“Although the extent of the summer sea ice after 2006 dropped abruptly to levels not expected until 2050, the predicted 67-per-cent decline in polar bear numbers simply didn’t happen.

Polar bear

Rising temperatures cause the sea ice to melt earlier in the year, driving the bears to shore before they have built sufficient fat reserves to survive the period of scarce food in the late summer and early fall.

Polar bear

Between 1987 and 2004, the Western Hudson Bay population declined by 22%, although the population was listed as "stable" as of 2017.

Polar bear

The proportion of maternity dens on sea ice has changed from 62% between the years 1985 through 1994, to 37% over the years 1998 through 2004.

Polar bear

Steven Amstrup and other U.S. Geological Survey scientists have predicted two-thirds of the world's polar bears may disappear by 2050, based on moderate projections for the shrinking of summer sea ice caused by climate change, though the validity of this study has been debated.

Polar bear

Warnings about the future of the polar bear are often contrasted with the fact that worldwide population estimates have increased over the past 50 years and are relatively stable today.


Rather, global polar bear numbers have been stable or slightly improved.”

Polar bear

For decades, large-scale hunting raised international concern for the future of the species, but populations rebounded after controls and quotas began to take effect.

Polar bear

Polar bear population sizes and trends are difficult to estimate accurately because they occupy remote home ranges and exist at low population densities.

Polar bear

However, in the short term, some polar bear populations in historically colder regions of the Arctic may temporarily benefit from a milder climate, as multiyear ice that is too thick for seals to create breathing holes is replaced by thinner annual ice.

Polar bear

Polar bear

Of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations, one is in decline, two are increasing, seven are stable, and nine have insufficient data, as of 2017.


“For example, Canadian polar bear biologist Ian Stirling learned in the 1970s that spring sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea periodically gets so thick that seals depart, depriving local polar bears of their prey and causing their numbers to plummet.

Polar bear

The Arctic is home to millions of seals, which become prey when they surface in holes in the ice in order to breathe, or when they haul out on the ice to rest.

Polar bear

Unlike brown and black bears, polar bears are capable of fasting for up to several months during late summer and early fall, when they cannot hunt for seals because the sea is unfrozen.

Polar bear

Then they begin the long walk from the denning area to the sea ice, where the mother can once again catch seals.

Polar bear

It has been claimed that polar bears will be able to adapt to terrestrial food sources as the sea ice they use to hunt seals disappears.

Polar bear

Polar bears hunt their preferred food of seals from the edge of sea ice, often living off fat reserves when no sea ice is present.


many scientists were surprised when other researchers subsequently found that ringed and bearded seals (the primary prey of polar bears) north of the Bering Strait especially thrived with a longer open-water season, which is particularly conducive to fishing

Bearded seal

Natural predators of the bearded seal include polar bears, who rely on these seals as a major food source.

Marine mammal

The polar bear is the most carnivorous species of bear, and its diet primarily consists of ringed (Pusa hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals.

Polar bear

The polar bear is the most carnivorous member of the bear family, and throughout most of its range, its diet primarily consists of ringed (Pusa hispida) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus).

Polar bear

The polar bear tends to frequent areas where sea ice meets water, such as polynyas and leads (temporary stretches of open water in Arctic ice), to hunt the seals that make up most of its diet.

Ringed seal

Ringed seals are one of the primary prey of polar bears and killer whales, and have long been a component of the diet of indigenous people of the Arctic.


while it’s true that studies in some regions show polar bears are lighter in weight than they were in the 1980s, there is no evidence that more individuals are starving to death or becoming too thin to reproduce because of less summer ice.

Polar bear

Polar bear

They still manage to consume some seals, but they are food-deprived in summer as only marine mammal carcasses are an important alternative without sea ice, especially carcasses of the beluga whale.

Polar bear

A study in Hudson Bay indicated that both the reproductive success and the maternal weight of females peaked in their mid-teens.Maternal success appeared to decline after this point, possibly because of an age-related impairment in the ability to store the fat necessary to rear cubs.

Polar bear

In Alaska, the effects of sea ice shrinkage have contributed to higher mortality rates in polar bear cubs, and have led to changes in the denning locations of pregnant females.

Polar bear

Steven Amstrup and other U.S. Geological Survey scientists have predicted two-thirds of the world's polar bears may disappear by 2050, based on moderate projections for the shrinking of summer sea ice caused by climate change, though the validity of this study has been debated.


The failure of the 2007 polar bear survival model is a simple fact that explodes the myth that polar bears are on their way to extinction.

Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event

The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, also known as the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction, was a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, approximately 66 million years ago.

Extinction event

The most recent and arguably best-known, the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, which occurred approximately 66 million years ago (Ma), was a large-scale mass extinction of animal and plant species in a geologically short period of time.

Extinction event

"Fossil record supports evidence of impending mass extinction".

Holocene extinction

For the first time since the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, we face a global mass extinction of wildlife.

Quaternary extinction event

The Quaternary period (from 2.588 ± 0.005 million years ago to the present) saw the extinctions of numerous predominantly megafaunal species, which resulted in a collapse in faunal density and diversity and the extinction of key ecological strata across the globe.


Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.

These very accurate observations of variations in sea surface height—also known as ocean topography—provide information about global sea level, the speed and direction of ocean currents, and heat stored in the ocean.

Remote sensing

Laser and radar altimeters on satellites have provided a wide range of data.

Remote sensing

Ultrasound (acoustic) and radar tide gauges measure sea level, tides and wave direction in coastal and offshore tide gauges.

Sea level rise

Tide gauges can only measure relative sea level, whilst satellites can also measure absolute sea level changes.

Tide gauge

A tide gauge is a device for measuring the change in sea level relative to a vertical datum.


Sea level rise of 65 centimeters, or roughly 2 feet would cause significant problems for coastal cities around the world.

Sea level rise

Further effects are higher storm-surges and more dangerous tsunamis, displacement of populations, loss and degradation of agricultural land and damage in cities.

Sea level rise

A rise of 2.4 m (8 feet) is physically possible under a high emission scenario but the authors were unable to say how likely.

Sea level rise

Future sea level rise could lead to potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based communities in the next centuries: for example, millions of people will be affected in cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai if following the current trajectory of 3 °C (5.4 °F).

Sea level rise

For example, in 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a high end estimate of 60 cm (2 ft) through 2099, but their 2014 report raised the high-end estimate to about 90 cm (3 ft).

Sea level rise

A number of later studies have concluded that a global sea level rise of 200 to 270 cm (6.6 to 8.9 ft) this century is "physically plausible".


more so than downsizing one’s car, or being vigilant about turning off light bulbs, and certainly more than quitting showering.

Efficient energy use

Installing LED lighting, fluorescent lighting, or natural skylight windows reduces the amount of energy required to attain the same level of illumination compared to using traditional incandescent light bulbs.

Headlamp

Intelligent Light System is a headlamp beam control system introduced in 2006 on the Mercedes-Benz E-Class (W211) which offers five different bi-xenon light functions, each of which is suited to typical driving or weather conditions: Country mode Motorway mode Enhanced fog lamps Active light function (Advanced front-lighting system (AFS)) Cornering light function Adaptive Highbeam Assist is Mercedes-Benz' marketing name for a headlight control strategy that continuously automatically tailors the headlamp range so the beam just reaches other vehicles ahead, thus always ensuring maximum possible seeing range without glaring other road users.

LED lamp

"Longevity of light bulbs and how to make them last longer".

Phase-out of incandescent light bulbs:309

Phase-out of incandescent light bulbs

"Raising Awareness of Energy Efficient Light Bulbs Pays off in Rwanda".

Series and parallel circuits

Consider a very simple circuit consisting of four light bulbs and a 12-volt automotive battery.


“Which is to say that these beans will be eaten by cows, and the cows will convert the beans to meat, and the humans will eat the meat.

Buffalo meat

Buffalo are generally fed on coarse feeds; they convert them into the protein-rich lean meat.

Meat

conversion of human-inedible residues of food crops.

Veganism

To obtain milk from dairy cattle, cows are made pregnant to induce lactation; they are kept lactating for three to seven years, then slaughtered.

Vegetarianism

are vehemently against the consumption of meat and eggs (though they do consume and encourage the consumption of milk, butter and cheese).

Why We Love Dogs, Eat Pigs, and Wear Cows:4

Carnivores require meat in their diet for survival, but carnists choose to eat meat based on their beliefs.


In the process, the cows will emit much greenhouse gas, and they will consume far more calories in beans than they will yield in meat, meaning far more clearcutting of forests to farm cattle feed than would be necessary if the beans above were simply eaten by people.”

Agriculture

Agriculture contributes to climate change by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and by the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forest for agricultural use.

Beef

A simple exchange of beef to soy beans (a common feed source for cattle) in Americans' diets would, according to one estimate, result in meeting between 46 and 74 percent of the reductions needed to meet the 2020 greenhouse gas emission goals of the United States as pledged in 2009.

Livestock

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has estimated that agriculture (including not only livestock, but also food crop, biofuel and other production) accounted for about 10 to 12 percent of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (expressed as 100-year carbon dioxide equivalents) in 2005 and in 2010.Cows produce some 570 million cubic metres of methane per day, that accounts for from 35 to 40% of the overall methane emissions of the planet.

Milk

Compared to plant milks, cow's milk requires the most land and water, and its production results in the greatest amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, and water pollution.

Vegetarianism

In addition, animal agriculture is a large source of greenhouse gases.


When the heat buildup in the ocean is taken into account, global temperatures are rising relentlessly.

Global warming

Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.

Global warming

Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.

Global warming

Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has warmed ocean water.

Global warming

Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants.

Global warming

Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average temperatures.


“The arc of global warming will be variously steep and less steep,’ said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.

Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory

The Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) is a research unit of Columbia University located on a 157-acre (64 ha) campus in Palisades, N.Y., 18 miles (29 km) north of Manhattan on the Hudson River.

Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory

The Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University is one of the world's leading research centers developing fundamental knowledge about the origin, evolution and future of the natural world.

Megadrought

Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.

Sean Solomon

Sean Carl Solomon (born October 24,1945) is the director of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, where he is also the William B. Ransford Professor of Earth and Planetary Science.

Wallace Smith Broecker

He was the Newberry Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, a scientist at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a sustainability fellow at Arizona State University.


The heat extremes were especially pervasive in the Arctic, with temperatures in the fall running 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across large stretches of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Ocean

Play media Under the influence of the Quaternary glaciation, the Arctic Ocean is contained in a polar climate characterized by persistent cold and relatively narrow annual temperature ranges.

Arctic Ocean

As recently as 55 million years ago, during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the region reached an average annual temperature of 10–20 °C (50–68 °F).

Arctic sea ice decline

It has been established that the region is at its warmest for at least 4,000 years and the Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of 5 days per decade (from 1979 to 2013), dominated by a later autumn freeze-up.

Arctic sea ice decline

The Arctic Ocean is the mass of water positioned approximately above latitude 65° N. Arctic Sea Ice refers to the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice.

Global warming

Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.


“We indicated 23 years ago — in our 1994 Nature article — that climate models had the atmosphere’s sensitivity to CO2 much too high,” Christy said in a statement.

Climate sensitivity

The sensitivity of temperature to atmospheric gasses, most notably CO 2, is often expressed in terms of the change in temperature per doubling of the concentration of the gas.

Climate sensitivity

In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.

Climate sensitivity

For constant humidity they computed a climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C per doubling of CO2 (which they rounded to 2, the value most often quoted from their work, in the abstract of the paper).

Global warming controversy

As defined by the IPCC, climate sensitivity is the "equilibrium temperature rise that would occur for a doubling of CO 2 concentration above pre-industrial levels".

James Hansen

They did note that the agreement between the observations and the intermediate scenario was accidental because the climate sensitivity used was higher than current estimates.


Models are too sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he said.

Carbon dioxide

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.

Climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is the globally averaged temperature change in response to changes in radiative forcing, which can occur, for instance, due to increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2).

Climate sensitivity

Climate models of earth, for example the Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), are used to simulate the quantity of warming that will occur with rising CO 2 concentrations.

Climate sensitivity

The more sensitive a climate system is to increased greenhouse gases, the more likely it is to have decades when temperatures are much higher or much lower than the longer-term average.

Climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the temperature increase that would result from sustained doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, after the Earth's energy budget and the climate system reach radiative equilibrium.


climate models predict too much warming in the troposphere

Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements:109

Some models show more warming in the troposphere than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behavior.

Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements:114

While the satellite data now show global warming, there is still some difference between what climate models predict and what the satellite data show for warming of the lower troposphere, with the climate models predicting slightly more warming than what the satellites measure.

Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements:96

Climate models predict that as the surface warms, so should the global troposphere.

Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements:97

Globally, the troposphere (at the TLT altitude at which the MSU sounder measure) is predicted to warm about 1.2 times more than the surface; in the tropics, the troposphere should warm about 1.5 times more than the surface.

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The programme states that all models of greenhouse effect-derived temperature increase predict that the warming will be at its greatest for a given location in the troposphere and at its lowest near the surface of the earth.


While many scientists have acknowledged the mismatch between model predictions and actual temperature observations, few have really challenged the validity of the models themselves.

Global warming controversy

A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".

Global warming controversy

This result went against a similar study of 19 models which found that discrepancies between model predictions and actual temperature were likely due to measurement errors.

Global warming controversy

Certain scientists, skeptics and otherwise, believe this confidence in the models' ability to predict future climate is not earned.

Machine learning

Loss functions express the discrepancy between the predictions of the model being trained and the actual problem instances (for example, in classification, one wants to assign a label to instances, and models are trained to correctly predict the pre-assigned labels of a set of examples).

Physics

To that end, experiments are performed and observations are made in order to determine the validity or invalidity of the theory.


A recent study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Ben Santer found that while the models ran hot, the ‘overestimation’ was ‘partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.’

Global warming controversy

Nuclear winter

In 2007, a nuclear winter study, noted that modern computer models have been applied to the Kuwait oil fires, finding that individual smoke plumes are not able to loft smoke into the stratosphere, but that smoke from fires covering a large area[quantify] like some forest fires can lift smoke[quantify] into the stratosphere, and recent evidence suggests that this occurs far more often than previously thought.

Nuclear winter

A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in July 2007, titled "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences", used current climate models to look at the consequences of a global nuclear war involving most or all of the world's current nuclear arsenals (which the authors judged to be one similar to the size of the world's arsenals twenty years earlier).

Nuclear winter

While the highly popularized initial 1983 TTAPS 1-dimensional model forecasts were widely reported and criticized in the media, in part because every later model predicts far less of its "apocalyptic" level of cooling, most models continue to suggest that some deleterious global cooling would still result, under the assumption that a large number of fires occurred in the spring or summer.

Nuclear winter

While it is believed that the modeled climate-cooling-effects from the mass of soot injected into the stratosphere by 100 firestorms (one to five teragrams) would have been detectable with technical instruments in WWII, five percent of that would not have been possible to observe at that time.


While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend

1257 Samalas eruption

The Little Ice Age was a period of several centuries during the last millennium during which global temperatures were depressed; the cooling was associated with volcanic eruptions.

Natural disaster

The effects include the volcanic eruption itself that may cause harm following the explosion of the volcano or falling rocks.

Nuclear winter

Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.

Volcanism

The amount of gas and ash emitted by volcanic eruptions has a significant effect on the Earth's climate.

Volcano

The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather.


“‘Those eruptions happened relatively early in our study period, which pushed down temperatures in the first part of the dataset, which caused the overall record to show an exaggerated warming trend,’ Christy said.

Global warming controversy

A study released in 2009, combined historical weather station data with satellite measurements to deduce past temperatures over large regions of the continent, and these temperatures indicate an overall warming trend.

John Christy

This was once quite controversial: From the beginning of the satellite record in late 1978 into 1998 it showed a net global cooling trend, although ground measurements and instruments carried aloft by balloons showed warming in many areas.

John Christy

Part of the cooling trend seen by the satellites can be attributed to several years of cooler than normal temperatures and cooling caused by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano.

John Christy

Since the data correction of August 1998 (and the major La Niña Pacific Ocean warming event of the same year), data collected by satellite instruments has shown an average global warming trend in the atmosphere.

John Christy

From November 1978 through March 2011, Earth's atmosphere has warmed at an average rate of about 0.14 C per decade, according to the UAHuntsville satellite record.


‘While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend.

1257 Samalas eruption

1257 Samalas eruption

The deposits showed that climate disturbances reported at that time were due to a volcanic event, the global spread indicating a tropical volcano as the cause.

Climate change (general concept)

Small eruptions, with injections of less than 0.1 Mt of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, affect the atmosphere only subtly, as temperature changes are comparable with natural variability.

Volcanism

Volcano


If the same eruptions had happened near the more recent end of the dataset, they could have pushed the overall trend into negative numbers, or a long-term cooling,’ Christy said.”

Global cooling

Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate".

Global warming hiatus

They used computer simulations of future climate to show that it was "possible, and indeed likely, to have a period as long as a decade or two of 'cooling' or no warming superimposed on a longer-term warming trend."

John Christy

Phanerozoic

The Late Cretaceous featured a cooling trend that would continue into the Cenozoic Era.

Satellite temperature measurements

The long term cooling in the lower stratosphere occurred in two downward steps in temperature both after the transient warming related to explosive volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, this behavior of the global stratospheric temperature has been attributed to global ozone concentration variation in the two years following volcanic eruptions.


policies based on previous climate model output and predictions might need to be reconsidered

General circulation model

These models are the basis for model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.

General circulation model

GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and forecasting climate change.

Global warming

The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".

Science

For example, it is used in quantitative scientific modeling, which can generate new hypotheses and predictions to be tested.

Sensitivity analysis

Effective Groundwater Model Calibration, with Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions, and Uncertainty.


Before human burning of fossil fuels triggered global warming, the continent’s ice was in relative balance

Antarctica

The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance.

Coal

The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming.

Global warming

But, more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation, while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation.

Ice age

The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

"Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming".


With marine ice cliff instability, sea-level rise for the next century is potentially much larger than we thought it might be five or 10 years ago

Global warming

Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.

Sea level rise

For instance, a 2016 study led by Jim Hansen concluded that based on past climate change data, sea level rise could accelerate exponentially in the coming decades, with a doubling time of 10, 20 or 40 years, respectively, raising the ocean by several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years.

Sea level rise

According to the Fourth (2017) National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the United States it is very likely sea level will rise between 30 and 130 cm (1.0–4.3 feet) in 2100 compared to the year 2000.

Sea level rise

For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone.

Sea level rise

A number of later studies have concluded that a global sea level rise of 200 to 270 cm (6.6 to 8.9 ft) this century is "physically plausible".


“Instead of a three-foot increase in ocean levels by the end of the century, six feet was more likely, according to DeConto and Pollard’s findings.

Antarctica

If the sheet were to break down, ocean levels would rise by several metres in a relatively geologically short period of time, perhaps a matter of centuries.

Lake Tahoe

Historically, the clarity of Lake Tahoe continued to decrease through 2010, when the average Secchi depth, 64.4 feet (19.6 m), was the second lowest ever recorded (the lowest was 64.1 feet (19.5 m) in 1997).

Miami

Beginning some 130,000 years ago, the Sangamonian Stage raised sea levels to approximately 25 feet (8 m) above the current level.

Miami

By 15,000 years ago, the sea level had dropped 300 to 350 feet (90 to 110 m) below the current level.

River Thames

Combined, this and other studies suggest that the Thames sea-level has risen more than 30 m during the Holocene at a rate of around 5–6 mm per year from 10,000 to 6,000 years ago.


Pollard and DeConto are the first to admit that their model is still crude, but its results have pushed the entire scientific community into emergency mode.

Science

In addition to testing hypotheses, scientists may also generate a model, an attempt to describe or depict the phenomenon in terms of a logical, physical or mathematical representation and to generate new hypotheses that can be tested, based on observable phenomena.

Scientific method

Scientific models vary in the extent to which they have been experimentally tested and for how long, and in their acceptance in the scientific community.

Scientific method

Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others within the scientific community.

Scientific method

One key point was that they realized that the quickest way to reach a result was not to continue a mathematical analysis, but to build a physical model.

Scientific method

In essence it is a process of accelerated and rigorous trial and error building on previous knowledge to refine an existing hypothesis, or discarding it altogether to find a better model.


Scientists used to think that ice sheets could take millennia to respond to changing climates

Climatology

While scientists knew of past climate change such as the ice ages, the concept of climate as unchanging was useful in the development of a general theory of what determines climate.

Greenland ice sheet

They offered a conclusion that the "coupling between surface melting and ice-sheet flow provides a mechanism for rapid, large-scale, dynamic responses of ice sheets to climate warming".

Greenland ice sheet

An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway."

Scientific consensus on climate change:16

Scientific consensus on climate change

Its conclusions are summarized below: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."

Scientific consensus on climate change:671

Scientific consensus on climate change

There is growing evidence that our climate is changing.


“‘If you remove the ice shelf, there’s a potential that not just ice-cliff instabilities will start occurring, but a process called marine ice-sheet instabilities,’ says Matthew Wise, a polar scientist at the University of Cambridge.

Antarctica

Melting of floating ice shelves (ice that originated on the land) does not in itself contribute much to sea-level rise (since the ice displaces only its own mass of water).

Sea level rise

Secondly, melting of the ice shelves, the floating extensions of the ice sheet, leads to a process named the Marine Ice Cliff Instability.

Sea level rise

"Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure".

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well below sea level and its edges flow into floating ice shelves.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

They proposed that changes in air circulation patterns have led to increased upwelling of warm, deep ocean water along the coast of Antarctica and that this warm water has increased melting of floating ice shelves at the edge of the ice sheet.


A fast transition away from fossil fuels in the next few decades could be enough to put off rapid sea-level rise for centuries.

Global warming

Global warming

Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.

Global warming

Sea level rise will continue over many centuries.

Nuclear power

Slowing global warming requires a transition to a low-carbon economy, mainly by burning far less fossil fuel.

Sustainable energy

The pathways that are consistent with limiting warning to approximately 1.5 °C describe a rapid transition towards producing electricity through lower-emission methods, and increasing use of electricity instead of other fuels in sectors such as transportation.


The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate”

Climate change in the Arctic

The authors conclude that "anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases have led to unprecedented regional warmth."

Global warming

This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:296

Another example of scientific research which suggests that previous estimates by the IPCC, far from overstating dangers and risks, have actually understated them is a study on projected rises in sea levels.

Scientific consensus on climate change:107

Scientific consensus on climate change

The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO 2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid".

Scientific consensus on climate change:35

Scientific consensus on climate change

The report's Summary for Policymakers stated that warming of the climate system is 'unequivocal' with changes unprecedented over decades to millennia, including warming of the atmosphere and oceans, loss of snow and ice, and sea level rise.


But the new research shows that the amount of oxygen in those shells doesn’t actually remain constant over time.

Europa (moon)

Observations with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph of the Hubble Space Telescope, first described in 1995, revealed that Europa has a thin atmosphere composed mostly of molecular oxygen (O2), and some water vapor.

Oxygen

Paleoclimatologists measure the ratio of oxygen-18 and oxygen-16 in the shells and skeletons of marine organisms to determine the climate millions of years ago (see oxygen isotope ratio cycle).

Oxygen

Paleoclimatologists also directly measure this ratio in the water molecules of ice core samples as old as hundreds of thousands of years.

Radiocarbon dating

The effect also applies to marine organisms such as shells, and marine mammals such as whales and seals, which have radiocarbon ages that appear to be hundreds of years old.

Radiocarbon dating

The effect varies greatly and there is no general offset that can be applied; additional research is usually needed to determine the size of the offset, for example by comparing the radiocarbon age of deposited freshwater shells with associated organic material.


The new research showed that [oxygen isotopes in foraminifera] can change

Pleistocene

Such a pattern seems to fit the information on climate change found in oxygen isotope cores.

Proxy (climate)

As of 2018[update], there is a decade of research demonstrating that in mineral soils the degree of methylation of bacteria (brGDGTs), helps to calculate mean annual air temperatures.

Radiocarbon dating

In 1939, Martin Kamen and Samuel Ruben of the Radiation Laboratory at Berkeley began experiments to determine if any of the elements common in organic matter had isotopes with half-lives long enough to be of value in biomedical research.

Speleothem

Stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) are recorded well in speleothems, giving high-resolution data that can show annual variation in temperature (oxygen isotopes primarily reflect rainfall temperature) and precipitation (carbon isotopes primarily reflect C3/C4 plant composition and plant productivity, but the interpretation is often complicated).

Speleothem

"Cryogenic cave calcite from several Central European caves: age, carbon and oxygen isotopes and a genetic model".


The changes in the amount of oxygen in the shells isn’t a reflection of changing temperatures – just a consequence of the fact that the amount of oxygen seen changes over time anyway.

Common octopus

Variations in temperature can also induce a change in hemolymph protein levels along oxygen consumption.

Common octopus

The slight rise in P50 that occurs with temperature change allows oxygen pressure to remain high in the capillaries, allowing for elevated diffusion of oxygen into the mitochondria during periods of high oxygen consumption.

Common octopus

In moving vertically throughout the water, the octopus is subjected to various pressures and temperatures, which affect the concentration of oxygen available in the water.

Human impact on marine life

This means the density of ocean water changes as its temperature and salinity changes.

Paleoclimatology

The exact cause of the variation of the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere is not known.


“To revisit the ocean’s paleotemperatures now, we need to carefully quantify this re-equilibration, which has been overlooked for too long.

Paleothermometer

The calibration was initially done on the basis of spatial variations in temperature and it was assumed that this corresponded to temporal variations (Jouzel and Merlivat, 1984).

Paleothermometer

Mg has a long residence time in the ocean, and so it is possible to largely ignore the effect of changes in seawater Mg/Ca on the signal.

Paleothermometer

Temperature has been estimated (to varying degrees of fidelity) using leaf physiognomy for Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic leaf floras, principally using two main approaches: A univariate approach that is based on the observation that the proportion of woody dicot species with smooth (i.e.

Paleothermometer

The major influence on δ18O is the difference between ocean temperatures where the moisture evaporated and the place where the final precipitation occurred; since ocean temperatures are relatively stable the δ18O value mostly reflects the temperature where precipitation occurs.

We Belong Together

Styles P raps "Past is the past, just let it be bygones / Matter of fact I know a fly song that we could vibe on", which Sanneh writes "Cheerfully out of place, he sounds like a man who has wandered into the wrong summertime party, but so what?


For that, we have to work on other types of marine organisms so that we clearly understand what took place in the sediment over geological time”

Geobiology

While there are many aspects of studying past and present interactions between life and Earth that are unclear, several important ideas and concepts provide a basis of knowledge in geobiology that serve as a platform for posing researchable questions, including the evolution of life and planet and the co-evolution of the two, genetics - from both a historical and functional standpoint, the metabolic diversity of all life, the sedimentological preservation of past life, and the origin of life.

Geology

These fossils help scientists to date the core and to understand the depositional environment in which the rock units formed.

Geology

Observation of modern marine and non-marine sediments in a wide variety of environments supports this generalization (although cross-bedding is inclined, the overall orientation of cross-bedded units is horizontal).

Paleontology

It includes the study of fossils to determine organisms' evolution and interactions with each other and their environments (their paleoecology).

Paleontology

Biostratigraphy, the use of fossils to work out the chronological order in which rocks were formed, is useful to both paleontologists and geologists.


Global human emissions are only 3 per cent of total annual emissions.

Agriculture

It is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gases, responsible for 18% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents.

Agriculture

Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% to global annual emissions in 2010.

Climate change and agriculture

Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% of global annual emissions in 2010.

Kyoto Protocol

In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases.


The past shows that climate change is normal, that warmer times and more atmospheric carbon dioxide have driven biodiversity and that cold times kill.”

Anoxic event

The trigger for these mass extinctions appears to be a warming of the ocean caused by a rise of carbon dioxide levels to about 1000 parts per million.

Biodiversity

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide certainly affects plant morphology and is acidifying oceans, and temperature affects species ranges, phenology, and weather, but, mercifully, the major impacts that have been predicted are still potential futures.

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.

Effects of global warming on human health:306

Historically, cold temperatures at night and in the winter months would kill off insects, bacteria and fungi.

Paleoclimatology

Studies of past changes in the environment and biodiversity often reflect on the current situation, specifically the impact of climate on mass extinctions and biotic recovery and current global warming.


“The worldwide temperature record has been changed.

Attribution of recent climate change

This has led to increases in mean global temperature, or global warming.

Attribution of recent climate change

According to the historical temperature record of the last century, the Earth's near-surface air temperature has risen around 0.74 ± 0.18 °Celsius (1.3 ± 0.32 °Fahrenheit).

Attribution of recent climate change

Over the past five decades there has been a global warming of approximately 0.65 °C (1.17 °F) at the Earth's surface (see historical temperature record).

Global warming

"Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period".

Instrumental temperature record

An examination of the average global temperature changes by decades reveals continuing climate change, and AR5 reports "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1).


[South Australia] has the most expensive electricity in the world.

Adelaide

[citation needed] South Australia has the highest retail price for electricity in the country.

Energy in South Australia

"South Australia has the highest power prices in the world".

Energy in South Australia

It was claimed in 2017 that South Australia had the most expensive electricity in the world Another analysis claimed that South Australia has the second cheapest electricity in Australia.

South Australia

Renewable energy is a growing source of electricity in South Australia, and there is potential for growth from this particular industry of the state's economy.

South Australia

At the time of construction in late 2017, it was billed as the largest lithium-ion battery in the world.


[Those who signed the Paris Accord] cannot change Earth’s orbit and radiation released from the sun that drive climate

Climate

Ice caps form because high-latitude regions receive less energy as solar radiation from the sun than equatorial regions, resulting in lower surface temperatures.

Earth

The result is atmospheric circulation that drives the weather and climate through redistribution of thermal energy.

Future of Earth

These changes can influence the planetary climate.

Global warming

increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Sun

The energy of this sunlight supports almost all life on Earth by photosynthesis, and drives Earth's climate and weather.


Australia’s signed a suicide note [with the Paris Accord] yet didn’t seem to notice that China, India, Indonesia and the US did not commit to reducing their large carbon dioxide emissions.

Climate change mitigation

Countries that ratified the Kyoto protocol committed to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.

Energy policy of China

The plan did not include targets for carbon dioxide emission reductions, but it has been estimated that, if fully implemented, China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases would be reduced by 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2010.

Paris Agreement

This strategy involved energy and climate policy including the so-called 20/20/20 targets, namely the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20%, the increase of renewable energy's market share to 20%, and a 20% increase in energy efficiency.

Paris Agreement

Institutional asset owners associations and think-tanks have also observed that the stated objectives of the Paris Agreement are implicitly "predicated upon an assumption – that member states of the United Nations, including high polluters such as China, the US, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Indonesia and Mexico, which generate more than half the world's greenhouse gas emissions, will somehow drive down their carbon pollution voluntarily and assiduously without any binding enforcement mechanism to measure and control CO 2 emissions at any level from factory to state, and without any specific penalty gradation or fiscal pressure (for example a carbon tax) to discourage bad behaviour."

Paris Agreement

"U.S. and China announce steps to join the Paris accord that set nation-by-nation targets for cutting carbon emissions".


The grasslands, crops, forests and territorial waters of Australia absorb more carbon dioxide than Australia emits.

Carbon dioxide

During active photosynthesis, plants can absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they release in respiration.

Carbon sink

It is estimated that forests absorb between 10 and 20 tons of carbon dioxide per hectare each year, through photosynthetic conversion into starch, cellulose, lignin, and other components of wooden biomass.

Reforestation

Forests are an important part of the global carbon cycle because trees and plants absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis.

Reforestation

They absorb a huge amount of carbon dioxide, combating climate change.

Wetland

It decomposes and turns into carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released into the atmosphere.


[Riebesell] is a world authority on the topic and has typically communicated cautiously about the effects of acidification.

Effects of global warming on human health:339

Perhaps one of the most recent adverse effects of climate change to be explored is that of ocean acidification.

Global warming

Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".

Human impact on marine life

The direction and magnitude of the effects of ocean acidification, warming and deoxygenation on the ocean has been quantified by meta-analyses, and has been further tested by mesocosm studies.

Human impact on marine life

(2013) "Meta‐analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming".

Sea

Both are informed by chemical oceanography, which studies the behavior of elements and molecules within the oceans: particularly, at the moment, the ocean's role in the carbon cycle and carbon dioxide's role in the increasing acidification of seawater.


‘But even if an organism isn’t directly harmed by acidification it may be affected indirectly through changes in its habitat or changes in the food web.’

Environmental impact of the coal industry:87

The presence of acid-forming materials exposed as a result of surface mining can affect wildlife by eliminating habitat and by causing direct destruction of some species.

Human impact on marine life

These large-scale alterations in the physical environment are "driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs".

Ocean acidification

Aside from the slowing and/or reversing of calcification, organisms may suffer other adverse effects, either indirectly through negative impacts on food resources, or directly as reproductive or physiological effects.

Ocean acidification

Other organisms are directly harmed as a result of acidification.

Ocean acidification

Changes in ocean chemistry can have extensive direct and indirect effects on organisms and their habitats.


And some plants – like algae which use carbon for photosynthesis – may even benefit.

Algae

Most are phototrophic, although some are mixotrophic, deriving energy both from photosynthesis and uptake of organic carbon either by osmotrophy, myzotrophy, or phagotrophy.

Botany

Plants, algae and cyanobacteria are the major groups of organisms that carry out photosynthesis, a process that uses the energy of sunlight to convert water and carbon dioxide into sugars that can be used both as a source of chemical energy and of organic molecules that are used in the structural components of cells.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon fixation is a biochemical process by which atmospheric carbon dioxide is incorporated by plants, algae and (cyanobacteria) into energy-rich organic molecules such as glucose, thus creating their own food by photosynthesis.

Cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria use the energy of sunlight to drive photosynthesis, a process where the energy of light is used to synthesize organic compounds from carbon dioxide.

Plant

Algae comprise several different groups of organisms which produce food by photosynthesis and thus have traditionally been included in the plant kingdom.


[…]You can think of global warming as one type of climate change.

Climate change (general concept)

The term "climate change" is often used to refer specifically to anthropogenic climate change (also known as global warming).

Climate change (general concept)

In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming.

Climate change (general concept)

Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."

Global warming

Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate modification of the climate.

Global warming


The broader term covers changes beyond warmer temperatures, such as shifting rainfall patterns.”

Global warming

But, more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation, while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation.

Global warming

Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".

Global warming

The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.

Scientific consensus on climate change:721

Scientific consensus on climate change

This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise.

Tropical rainforest

In general, climatic patterns consist of warm temperatures and high annual rainfall.


“We’ve known about [the greenhouse effect] for more than a century.

Climate change denial

Scientists have known for over a century that even this small proportion has a significant warming effect, and doubling the proportion leads to a large temperature increase.

Global warming

In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO 2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age.

Global warming

This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO 2 emissions on the greenhouse effect: "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result".

Greenhouse effect

The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.

History of the world

The "greenhouse effect", substantially responsible for Earth's global warming, was first described in 1824 by the French mathematician Joseph Fourier.


[CO2] has increased 43 percent above the pre-industrial level so far

Global warming

As of 2011, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 40% and 150%, respectively, since pre-industrial times.

Greenhouse gas

Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009.

Greenhouse gas

For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 ppm to 415 ppm, or 120 ppm over modern pre-industrial levels.

Greenhouse gas

In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.

Greenhouse gas

Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.


Geologists say that humans are now pumping the gas into the air much faster than nature has ever done.

Carbon dioxide

CO 2 is produced by all aerobic organisms when they metabolize carbohydrates and lipids to produce energy by respiration.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide can be obtained by distillation from air, but the method is inefficient.

Global warming

The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased volcanic activity.

Global warming

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide.

Nature

Outgassing and volcanic activity produced the primordial atmosphere.


The warming is extremely rapid on the geologic time scale, and no other factor can explain it as well as human emissions of greenhouse gases.

Carbon dioxide

Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be warmer by about 33 °C (59 °F) than it would be in their absence.

Global warming

Ice age

There is considerable evidence that over the very recent period of the last 100–1000 years, the sharp increases in human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, has caused the parallel sharp and accelerating increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases which trap the sun's heat.


Instead of negotiating over climate change policies and trying to make them more market-oriented, some political conservatives have taken the approach of blocking them by trying to undermine the science.

Conservatism in the United States

On the other hand, some conservatives tend to oppose free-market trade policies and support protectionism instead.

Conservatism in the United States

Conservative think tanks since the 1990s have opposed the concept of man-made global warming; challenged scientific evidence; publicized what they perceived as beneficial aspects of global warming, and asserted that proposed remedies would do more harm than good.

Conservative Party (UK)

Some Conservative politicians such as Alan Duncan and Crispin Blunt take the libertarian approach that individual freedom and economic freedom of industry and trade should be respected.

Framing (social sciences)

Neoliberal frameworks that are often echoed by conservatives, such as support for the free market economy, are posited against climate action interventions that inherently place constraints on the free economy through support for renewable energy through subsidies or through additional tax on nonrenewable sources of energy.

Republican Party (United States)

Since then, Republicans have increasingly taken positions against environmental regulation, with some Republicans rejecting the scientific consensus on climate change.


Over the coming 25 or 30 years, scientists say, the climate is likely to gradually warm

Scientific consensus on climate change:136

Scientific consensus on climate change

Most of the climatic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Scientific consensus on climate change:4

Scientific consensus on climate change

The current scientific consensus is that: Earth's climate has warmed significantly since the late 1800s.

Scientific consensus on climate change:507

Scientific consensus on climate change

Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.

Scientific consensus on climate change:69

Scientific consensus on climate change

The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.

Scientific consensus on climate change:74

Scientific consensus on climate change

Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7 °F (3.9 °C).


“Scientists have published strong evidence that the warming climate is making heat waves more frequent and intense.

Climate change in the United States

A report released in March 2012 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that a strong body of evidence links global warming to an increase in heat waves, a rise in episodes of heavy rainfall and other precipitation, and more frequent coastal flooding.

Effects of global warming

In the last 30–40 years, heat waves with high humidity have become more frequent and severe.

Global warming

Climate change also increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this balancing feedback will persist in the future.

Global warming

Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.

Heat wave

"More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century".


In many other cases, though — hurricanes, for example — the linkage to global warming for particular trends is uncertain or disputed.

Attribution of recent climate change:113

Attribution of recent climate change

Human activity is likely to have made a substantial contribution to ocean surface temperature changes in hurricane formation regions.

Global warming

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.

Global warming

Climate change has been linked to an increase in violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks, which are well-documented drivers of these conflicts.

Global warming

Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is weak.

Regional effects of global warming

Regional effects of global warming are long-term significant changes in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region due to global warming.


The warming will slow to a potentially manageable pace only when human emissions are reduced to zero.

Global warming

Successful adaptation is easier if there are substantial emission reductions.

Global warming

Climate change can be mitigated through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

Global warming

In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while others have reduced emissions.

Global warming

To keep warming below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.

Scientific consensus on climate change:190

Scientific consensus on climate change

Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.


But experts say the energy transition needs to speed up drastically to head off the worst effects of climate change.

Abrupt climate change

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new climate state at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing.

Scientific consensus on climate change:122

Scientific consensus on climate change

Further global climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses.

Scientific consensus on climate change:160

Scientific consensus on climate change

It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO 2 emissions.

Scientific consensus on climate change:41

Scientific consensus on climate change

The stronger our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the lower the risk of extreme climate impacts.

Scientific consensus on climate change:6

Scientific consensus on climate change

Continuing emissions will increase the likelihood and severity of global effects.


Converting to these cleaner sources [of energy] may be somewhat costlier in the short term, but they could ultimately pay for themselves by heading off climate damages and reducing health problems associated with dirty air.

Air pollution

Efforts to reduce pollution from mobile sources includes primary regulation (many developing countries have permissive regulations),[citation needed] expanding regulation to new sources (such as cruise and transport ships, farm equipment, and small gas-powered equipment such as string trimmers, chainsaws, and snowmobiles), increased fuel efficiency (such as through the use of hybrid vehicles), conversion to cleaner fuels or conversion to electric vehicles.

Renewable energy

As most of renewable energy technologies provide electricity, renewable energy deployment is often applied in conjunction with further electrification, which has several benefits: electricity can be converted to heat (where necessary generating higher temperatures than fossil fuels), can be converted into mechanical energy with high efficiency, and is clean at the point of consumption.

Renewable energy

The results of a recent review of the literature concluded that as greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters begin to be held liable for damages resulting from GHG emissions resulting in climate change, a high value for liability mitigation would provide powerful incentives for deployment of renewable energy technologies.

Renewable energy

It would also reduce environmental pollution such as air pollution caused by burning of fossil fuels and improve public health, reduce premature mortalities due to pollution and save associated health costs that amount to several hundred billion dollars annually only in the United States.

Renewable energy

Other renewable sources such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydroelectricity have the advantage of being able to conserve water, lower pollution and reduce CO 2 emissions.


‘Clean coal’ is an approach in which the emissions from coal-burning power plants would be captured and pumped underground.

Carbon capture and storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) (or carbon capture and sequestration or carbon control and sequestration) is the process of capturing waste carbon dioxide (CO 2) usually from large point sources, such as a cement factory or biomass power plant, transporting it to a storage site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally an underground geological formation.

Carbon capture and storage

The geothermal plant then pumps the carbonated water into rock formations underground where the carbon dioxide reacts with basaltic bedrock and forms carbonite minerals.

Carbon capture and storage

Also known as geo-sequestration, this method involves injecting carbon dioxide, generally in supercritical form, directly into underground geological formations.

Climate change mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a method to mitigate climate change by capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from large point sources such as power plants and subsequently storing it away safely instead of releasing it into the atmosphere.

Coal pollution mitigation

Coal pollution mitigation, often called clean coal, is a series of systems and technologies that seek to mitigate the pollution and other environmental effects normally associated with the burning (though not the mining or processing) of coal, which is widely regarded as the dirtiest of the common fuels for industrial processes and power generation.


Climate Models Have Overestimated Global Warming

Climate

These models predict an upward trend in the global mean surface temperature, with the most rapid increase in temperature being projected for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Global warming

Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.

Global warming

Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.

Global warming

The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".

Richard Lindzen

Lindzen said that predicted warming may be overestimated because of their handling of the climate system's water vapor feedback.


the climate models have overestimated the amount of global warming and failed to predict what climatologists call the warming ‘hiatus’

Climate

Climatology

These models predict an upward trend in the surface temperatures, as well as a more rapid increase in temperature at higher latitudes.

Global warming

Global warming

Global warming

Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, what the consequences of global warming will be, and what to do about it.


The report, published in the journal Nature Geoscience on September 18, acknowledges that most of the models of warming trends failed to predict the ‘slowdown’ in warming post-2000, resulting in less pronounced warming than predicted and thus more room in the CO2 ‘emissions budget’ for the coming decades.

Global warming hiatus

Subsequently, a detailed study supports the conclusion that warming is continuing, but it also find there was less warming between 2001 and 2010 than climate models had predicted, and that this slowdown might be attributed to short-term variations in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which was negative during that period.

Global warming hiatus

A month before formal AR5 publication, a leaked draft of the report noted that "Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years", but lacked clear explanations, and attracted wide media coverage.

Global warming hiatus

They used the IPCC definition of the supposed hiatus as a slowdown in rate of temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, compared to the rate from 1951 to 2012, and again found no support for the idea of a "hiatus" or slowdown.

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:113

They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.


that likewise determined that the actual increases in warming post-2000 was ‘generally smaller than trends estimated’ from the models.”

Global warming controversy

The actual increase by 2000 was about 29%.

Global warming hiatus

Global warming hiatus

Global warming hiatus

A March 2014 study found that climate models assuming natural variability which matched subsequent observations of ENSO phasing had produced realistic estimates of 15-year trends.

Global warming

Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.


The team of climate scientists notes that in failing to predict the warming ‘hiatus’ in the beginning of the 21st century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models overestimated temperature increases…

Global warming controversy

Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:128

Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:226

The finished report summarizes the findings of scientists, showing that maintaining a temperature rise to below 1.5 °C remains possible, but only through "rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure..., and industrial systems".


The answer lies in the summer’s record-breaking heat, say wildfire experts.

2010 Russian wildfires

Such human activity, coupled with the unusually high temperatures over the Russian territories, catalyzed this record disturbance.

2010 Russian wildfires

The fires were associated with record-high temperatures, which were attributed to climate change—the summer had been the hottest recorded in Russian history—and drought.

2010 Russian wildfires

A combination of the smoke from the fires, producing heavy smog blanketing large urban regions and the record-breaking heat wave put stress on the Russian healthcare system.

2019–20 Australian bushfire season

Scientific experts and land management agencies agree that severely below average fuel moisture attributed to record-breaking temperatures and drought, accompanied by severe fire weather, are the primary causes of the 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, and that these are likely to have been exacerbated by long-term trends of warmer and dryer weather observed over the Australian land mass.

Bushfires in Australia

Across the country, the average summer temperatures have increased leading to record-breaking hot weather, with the early summer of 2019 the hottest on record.


Days of near-100-degree-Fahrenheit temperatures cooked the Mountain West in early July, and a scorching heat wave lingered over the Pacific Northwest in early August.”

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

A two-day-long heat wave hit the more rural parts of Texas on July 1.

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

From July 4 to July 9, 2010, the majority of the American East Coast, from the Carolinas to Maine, was gripped in a severe heat wave.

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

The heat continued through the second half of July but extreme heat was mostly confined to the Southeastern United States, giving relief to the Northeast and Upper Midwest as it had early in the month.

Cold wave

The cold wave was followed by one of the hottest summers on record, the 1936 North American heat wave.

Cold wave

1888 1888 US cold wave – A severe cold wave that passed through the Pacific Northwest.


the total area burned in the western United States over the past 33 years was double the size it would have been without any human-caused warming.

Effects of global warming

As a result, since the 1980s, both the size and ferocity of fires in California have increased dramatically.

Effects of global warming

Since the 1970s, the size of the area burned has increased fivefold while fifteen of the 20 largest fires in California have occurred since 2000.

Effects of global warming

After about a thousand years, 20% to 30% of human-emitted CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere, not taken up by the ocean or the land, committing the climate to warming long after emissions have stopped.

Effects of global warming

The data shows that recent warming has surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years.

Effects of global warming

Over most land areas since the 1950s, it is very likely that at all times of year both days and nights have become warmer due to human activities.


In the early 20th century, state and federal governments began aggressively fighting wildfires and trying to keep them as small as possible.

California

As part of the Ring of Fire, California is subject to tsunamis, floods, droughts, Santa Ana winds, wildfires, landslides on steep terrain, and has several volcanoes.

California

Over time, drought and wildfires have become more frequent challenges.

Maryland

More than 1,231 firefighters worked to bring the blaze under control.

United States

Nonetheless, large-scale conflicts continued throughout the West into the 1900s.

Wisconsin

By the close of the 19th century, intensive agriculture had devastated soil fertility, and lumbering had deforested most of the state.