An additional kick was supplied by an El Niño weather pattern that peaked in 2016 and temporarily warmed much of the surface of the planet, causing the hottest year in a historical record dating to 1880.

El Niño

An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme.

El Niño

However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is the warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in either the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño

Scientists have also found the chemical signatures of warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall caused by El Niño in coral specimens that are around 13,000 years old.

El Niño

The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.

La Niña

La Niña is the positive and cold phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.


“The global reef crisis does not necessarily mean extinction for coral species.

Conservation biology

The loss of coral reefs, which are predicted to go extinct in the next century, threatens the balance of global biodiversity, will have huge economic impacts, and endangers food security for hundreds of millions of people.

Conservation biology

"One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts".

Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event

The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, also known as the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction, was a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, approximately 66 million years ago.

Extinction risk from global warming

The extinction risk of global warming is the risk of species becoming extinct due to the effects of global warming.

Water scarcity

Several fish species have been driven to the edge of extinction and some, such as the disturbed Tokios coral reef formations in the Indian Ocean, are effectively lost.


The corals may save themselves, as many other creatures are attempting to do, by moving toward the poles as the Earth warms, establishing new reefs in cooler water.”

Coral in non-tropical regions

The poleward migration of coral species refers to the phenomenon brought on by rising sea temperatures, wherein corals are colonising cooler climates in an attempt to circumvent coral bleaching, rising sea levels and ocean acidification.

Coral in non-tropical regions

One way, however, that corals "might escape ocean warming, is to migrate into cooler waters."

Great Barrier Reef

The corals could then overgrow the submerged hills, to form the present cays and reefs.

Paleocene

In the modern thermohaline circulation, warm tropical water becomes colder and saltier at the poles and sinks (downwelling or deep water formation) that occurs at the North Atlantic near the North Pole and the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic Peninsula.

Paleocene

In the PETM, it is possible deep water formation occurred in saltier tropical waters and moved polewards, which would increase global surface temperatures by warming the poles.


If water temperatures stay moderate, the damaged sections of the Great Barrier Reef may be covered with corals again in as few as 10 or 15 years

Coral bleaching

In 2016, bleaching of coral on the Great Barrier Reef killed between 29 and 50 percent of the reef's coral.

Coral reef

Sea level on the Great Barrier Reef has not changed significantly in the last 6,000 years.

Environmental threats to the Great Barrier Reef:43

When the 2019 Townsville flood waters reached the Great Barrier Reef, the flood plumes covered a large area of corals, even reaching 60 km out to sea.

Great Barrier Reef

On 3 April 2010, the bulk coal carrier Shen Neng 1 ran aground on Douglas Shoals, spilling up to four tonnes of oil into the water and causing extensive damage to the reef.

Great Barrier Reef

In March 2017, the journal Nature published a paper showing that huge sections of an 800-kilometre (500 mi) stretch in the northern part of the reef had died in the course of 2016 due to high water temperatures, an event that the authors put down to the effects of global climate change.


Within a decade, certain kinds of branching and plate coral could be extinct, reef scientists say, along with a variety of small fish that rely on them for protection from predators.

Coastal fish

In turn, they are preyed on by larger predatory fish, seabirds and marine mammals.

Coral reef

This level of variety in the environment benefits many coral reef animals, which, for example, may feed in the sea grass and use the reefs for protection or breeding.

Diversity of fish

Swordfish are teleosts Rose fish are also teleosts Eels are teleosts too So are seahorses Some of the shortest-lived species are gobies, which are small coral reef–dwelling fish.

Glossary of fishery terms

Endangered species - An endangered species is a population of an organism which is at risk of becoming extinct.

Glossary of fishery terms

They are important apex predators feeding on a wide variety of smaller fish and cephalopods.


“CO2 is certainly a heat-trapping greenhouse gas, but hardly the primary one: Water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of greenhouse gases.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide is the most significant long-lived greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere.

Greenhouse gas

At present, the primary source of CO 2 emissions is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum for electricity and heat.

Greenhouse gas

The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3).

Scientific consensus on climate change:717

Scientific consensus on climate change

The world's most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels.

Water vapor

Being a component of Earth's hydrosphere and hydrologic cycle, it is particularly abundant in Earth's atmosphere where it is also a potent greenhouse gas along with other gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.


A second coat of paint has much less of an effect, while adding a third or fourth coat has almost no impact at all.”

Alf Ramsey

"Shots which appeared certain to score missed by the width of a coat of paint.

Anti-submarine warfare

However, they ended up having little impact, especially in the latter half of the war.

The Wizard of Oz (1939 film)

The first take ran well, but in the second take, the burst of fire came too soon as a result of which the flames set fire to her green and copper-based face paint, causing third-degree burns on her hands and face.

The Wizard of Oz (1939 film)

During the reshoots in May, the inside of the farm house was painted sepia, and when Dorothy opens the door, it is not Garland, but her stand-in, Bobbie Koshay, wearing a sepia gingham dress, who then backs out of frame; once the camera moves through the door, Garland steps back into frame in her bright blue gingham dress (as noted in DVD extras), and the sepia-painted door briefly tints her with the same color before she emerges from the house's shadow, into the bright glare of the Technicolor lighting.

Tincture (heraldry)

At one point, aluminum paint was used for argent, as it was more resistant to oxidation; but its effect also faded with age.


Your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2, but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 —

Gambler's fallacy

Since the first four tosses turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is: Pr ( A 5 | A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ∩ A 4 ) = Pr ( A 5 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle \Pr \left(A_{5}|A_{1}\cap A_{2}\cap A_{3}\cap A_{4}\right)=\Pr \left(A_{5}\right)={\frac {1}{2}}} .

Gambler's fallacy

Assuming a fair coin: The probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521 The probability of 20 heads, then 1 head is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521 The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152.

Probability

If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is P ( A  and  B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) , {\displaystyle P(A{\mbox{ and }}B)=P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B),\,} for example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is 1 2 × 1 2 = 1 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {1}{2}}\times {\tfrac {1}{2}}={\tfrac {1}{4}}} .

Probability

P ( A  or  B ) = P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 0 = P ( A ) + P ( B ) {\displaystyle P(A{\mbox{ or }}B)=P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)=P(A)+P(B)-0=P(A)+P(B)} For example, the chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is P ( 1  or  2 ) = P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) = 1 6 + 1 6 = 1 3 .

Random variable

{\displaystyle Y(\omega )={\begin{cases}1,&{\text{if }}\omega ={\text{heads}},\\[6pt]0,&{\text{if }}\omega ={\text{tails}}.\end{cases}}} If the coin is a fair coin, Y has a probability mass function f Y {\displaystyle f_{Y}} given by: f Y ( y ) = { 1 2 , if  y = 1 , 1 2 , if  y = 0 , {\displaystyle f_{Y}(y)={\begin{cases}{\tfrac {1}{2}},&{\text{if }}y=1,\\[6pt]{\tfrac {1}{2}},&{\text{if }}y=0,\end{cases}}} A random variable can also be used to describe the process of rolling dice and the possible outcomes.


(Multiplying .95 by itself 15 times yields 46.3 percent.)”

Dimensional analysis

1000   g   NO x 1 kg   NO x × 46   kg   NO x 1   kmol   NO x × 1   kmol   NO x 22.414   m 3   NO x × 10   m 3   NO x 10 6   m 3   gas × 20   m 3   gas 1   minute × 60   minute 1   hour = 24.63   g   NO x hour {\displaystyle {\frac {1000\ {\ce {g\ NO}}_{x}}{1{\cancel {{\ce {kg\ NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {46\ {\cancel {{\ce {kg\ NO}}_{x}}}}{1\ {\cancel {{\ce {kmol\ NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {1\ {\cancel {{\ce {kmol\ NO}}_{x}}}}{22.414\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {10\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {NO}}_{x}}}}{10^{6}\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {gas}}}}}}\times {\frac {20\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {gas}}}}}{1\ {\cancel {\ce {minute}}}}}\times {\frac {60\ {\cancel {\ce {minute}}}}{1\ {\ce {hour}}}}=24.63\ {\frac {{\ce {g\ NO}}_{x}}{\ce {hour}}}} After canceling out any dimensional units that appear both in the numerators and denominators of the fractions in the above equation, the NOx concentration of 10 ppmv converts to mass flow rate of 24.63 grams per hour.

Rate of return

This is a return of 20,000 USD divided by 100,000 USD, which equals 20 percent.

Rate of return

Assuming returns are reinvested, if the returns over n {\displaystyle n} successive time sub-periods are R 1 , R 2 , R 3 , ⋯ , R n {\displaystyle R_{1},R_{2},R_{3},\cdots ,R_{n}} , then the cumulative return or overall return over the overall time period is the result of compounding the returns together: ( 1 + R 1 ) ( 1 + R 2 ) ⋯ ( 1 + R n ) − 1 {\displaystyle (1+R_{1})(1+R_{2})\cdots (1+R_{n})-1} If the returns are logarithmic returns however, the logarithmic return over the overall time period is: ∑ i = 1 n R l o g , i = R l o g , 1 + R l o g , 2 + R l o g , 3 + ⋯ + R l o g , n {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}R_{\mathrm {log} ,i}=R_{\mathrm {log} ,1}+R_{\mathrm {log} ,2}+R_{\mathrm {log} ,3}+\cdots +R_{\mathrm {log} ,n}} This formula applies with an assumption of reinvestment of returns and it means that successive logarithmic returns can be summed, i.e.

Rate of return

For example, assuming reinvestment, the cumulative return for annual returns: 50%, -20%, 30% and -40% is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) − 1 = − 0.0640 = − 6.40 % {\displaystyle (1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)-1=-0.0640=-6.40\%} and the geometric average is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 = − 1.64 % {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{(1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)}}-1=-0.0164=-1.64\%} which is equal to the annualized cumulative return: 1 − 0.0640 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{1-0.0640}}-1=-0.0164} In the presence of external flows, such as cash or securities moving into or out of the portfolio, the return should be calculated by compensating for these movements.

Rate of return

The value of an investment is doubled if the return r {\displaystyle r} = +100%, that is, if r l o g {\displaystyle r_{\mathrm {log} }} = ln($200 / $100) = ln(2) = 69.3%.


While evidence that the earth’s orbital variations impact radiation levels and thus global temperatures does not of course mean that man is not in some way impacting the climate, studies like these highlight that the role man plays on the planet is dwarfed by natural phenomena utterly out of our control.

Global warming controversy

There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate.

Ice age

The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.

Milankovitch cycles

Physical evidence shows that the variation in Earth's climate is much more extreme than the variation in the intensity of solar radiation calculated as the Earth's orbit evolves.

Milankovitch cycles

Since orbital variations are predictable, any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate, with two caveats: the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not definitive; and non-orbital effects can be important (for example, Human impact on the environment principally increases in greenhouse gases result in a warmer climate).

Milankovitch cycles

Milankovitch studied changes in these movements of the Earth, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth.


While transient weather variability is playing a key role here, the widespread record warmth across the U.S. so far this year is part of a long-term trend toward more warm temperature records versus cold ones.

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend.

Global warming

Global surface temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlie long-term trends, and can temporarily mask or magnify them.

Instrumental temperature record

This long-term trend is the main cause for the record warmth of 2015 and 2016, surpassing all previous years—even ones with strong El Niño events."

Little Ice Age

Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age.


So far this month, there have been nearly 5,000 daily record highs set or tied, compared to just 42 daily record lows.

As a result, for example, US stock prices reached record highs.

Milwaukee

Milwaukee tends to experience highs that are 90 °F (32 °C) on or above seven days per year, and lows at or below 0 °F (−18 °C) on six to seven nights.

New Orleans

On average, there are 77 days of 90 °F (32 °C)+ highs, 8.1 days per winter where the high does not exceed 50 °F (10 °C), and 8.0 nights with freezing lows annually.

Seattle

Winters are cool and wet with December, the coolest month, averaging 40.6 °F (4.8 °C), with 28 annual days with lows that reach the freezing mark, and 2.0 days where the temperature stays at or below freezing all day; the temperature rarely lowers to 20 °F (−7 °C).

Seattle

The hottest officially recorded temperature was 103 °F (39 °C) on July 29, 2009; the coldest recorded temperature was 0 °F (−18 °C) on January 31, 1950; the record cold daily maximum is 16 °F (−9 °C) on January 14, 1950, while, conversely, the record warm daily minimum is 71 °F (22 °C) the day the official record high was set.


In Albany, New York, the high temperature of 74 degrees on Thursday was the warmest temperature on record for any day during the months of December, January and February.

Albany, New York

Record temperature extremes range from −28 °F (−33 °C), on January 19, 1971, to 104 °F (40 °C) on July 4, 1911.

Chicago

The normal winter high from December through March is about 36 °F (2 °C), with January and February being the coldest months; January 2019's polar vortex nearly broke the city's cold record of minus 27 degrees, which was set on January 20, 1985.

December

January February March April May June July August September October November December December is the twelfth and final month of the year in the Julian and Gregorian Calendars and is the seventh and last of seven months to have a length of 31 days.

Humid subtropical climate

Temperatures are very warm to hot but are not excessive: the average maximum in February is usually around 29 °C (84 °F) and in July around 21 °C (70 °F).

Season

However, due to seasonal lag, June, July, and August are the warmest months in the Northern Hemisphere while December, January, and February are the warmest months in the Southern Hemisphere.


But as that upper layer warms up, the oxygen-rich waters are less likely to mix down into cooler layers of the ocean because the warm waters are less dense and do not sink as readily.

Anoxic event

If the high latitude waters are below 5 °C (41 °F), they will be dense enough to sink; as they are cool, oxygen is highly soluble in their waters, and the deep ocean will be oxygenated.

Anoxic event

If high latitude waters are warmer than 5 °C (41 °F), their density is too low for them to sink below the cooler deep waters.

Lake ecosystem

As the season progresses, the warmer air temperatures heat the surface waters, making them less dense.

Marine habitats

Water that is saltier or cooler will be denser, and will sink in relation to the surrounding water.

Sea

Warm surface currents cool as they move away from the tropics, and the water becomes denser and sinks.


They do not make a definitive attribution statement, but the data are consistent with and strongly suggestive of human-driven warming as a root cause of the oxygen decline.’”

Climate change and ecosystems

A 2005 study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them.

Climatic Research Unit email controversy:132

They reaffirmed their 2007 position statement on climate change "based on the large body of scientific evidence that Earth's climate is warming and that human activity is a contributing factor.

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

The scientific consensus as of 2013[update], as stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, is that it "is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".

Global warming

He said, "Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."


Because oxygen in the global ocean is not evenly distributed, the 2 percent overall decline means there is a much larger decline in some areas of the ocean than others.

Effects of global warming

The ocean has already lost oxygen, throughout the entire water column and oxygen minimum zones are expanding worldwide.

Environmental issues in Thailand

The decline in income is not evenly distributed, with tropical regions hardest hit.

Ozone depletion

Ozone depletion consists of two related events observed since the late 1970s: a steady lowering of about four percent in the total amount of ozone in Earth's atmosphere (the ozone layer), and a much larger springtime decrease in stratospheric ozone around Earth's polar regions.

Ozone depletion

Ozone at middle latitudes has declined, but by a much smaller extent (a decrease of about 4–5 percent).

Ozone depletion

The greatest Arctic declines are in the winter and spring, reaching up to 30 percent when the stratosphere is coldest.


“Moreover, the ocean already contains so-called oxygen minimum zones, generally found in the middle depths.

Dead zone (ecology)

Dead zones are hypoxic (low-oxygen) areas in the world's oceans and large lakes, caused by "excessive nutrient pollution from human activities coupled with other factors that deplete the oxygen required to support most marine life in bottom and near-bottom water.

Dead zone (ecology)

These areas are also known as oxygen minimum zones (OMZ).

Deep sea fish

The oxygen minimum layer exists somewhere between a depth of 700m and 1000m deep depending on the place in the ocean.

Lake

The deeper layer becomes oxygen starved and can become saturated with carbon dioxide, or other gases such as sulfur dioxide if there is even a trace of volcanic activity.

Mesopelagic zone

The oxygen consumption due to respiration of most of the sinking organic matter and lack of gas exchange, often creates an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the mesopelagic.


warmer oceans have also begun to destabilize glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica

Retreat of glaciers since 1850

In Greenland, glacier retreat has been observed in outlet glaciers, resulting in an increase of the ice flow rate and destabilization of the mass balance of the ice sheet that is their source.

Sea level rise

Some of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers, such as Jakobshavn Isbræ and Kangerlussuaq Glacier, are flowing faster into the ocean.

Sea level rise

This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers.

Sea level rise

The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are: oceans expand, ice sheets lose ice faster than it forms from snowfall, and glaciers at higher altitudes also melt.

Sea level rise

"A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps".


However, this is exactly what climate scientists have predicted for California since at least the 1980s: protracted periods of warm, dry conditions punctuated by intense wet spells, with more rain and less snow, causing both drought and floods.

Climate of the United Kingdom

The summer of 1976 or 2019, for example, experienced temperatures as high as 35 °C (95 °F), and it was so dry the country suffered drought and water shortages.

Effects of global warming

more intense droughts and tropical cyclones) are more uncertain.

Mediterranean climate

hot and dry); as a result, these communities are well suited to recover from droughts, floods, and fires.

Physical impacts of climate change

Between 2011 and 2014, California experienced the driest period in its recorded history and more than 100 million trees died in the drought, creating areas of dead, dry wood.

Rain

There is also evidence that global warming is leading to increased precipitation to the eastern portions of North America, while droughts are becoming more frequent in the tropics and subtropics.


[…] in fact this pattern is already emerging, with the conditions that create extremely warm dry years and extremely wet years both becoming more frequent.

Alentejo

The climate of the region is typically warm and dry for a large part of the year, with summer temperatures occasionally reaching up to 40 °C (104 °F), while winters are relatively mild and wet.

Global warming

Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.

List of ecoregions in North America (CEC):32

Today the weather is generally very cold and dry with a few weeks of sun and rain in the summer.

Physical impacts of climate change

In other words, regions which are dry at present will generally become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will generally become even wetter.

Temperate climate

In these regions winters are quite dry and summers have very heavy rainfall.


“In an old climate, … extremely warm years were less common and snowpack was more reliable …

Durban

Durban has a humid subtropical climate (Köppen climate classification Cfa), with hot and humid summers and pleasantly warm and dry winters, which are snow and frost-free.

Montreal

It has a distinct four-season continental climate with warm to hot summers and cold, snowy winters.

Podlaskie Voivodeship

Podlaskie has a Warm Summer Continental or Hemiboreal climate (Dfb) according to the Köppen climate classification system, which is characterized by warm temperatures during summer and long and frosty winters.

Taiga

The taiga or boreal forest has a subarctic climate with very large temperature range between seasons, but the long and cold winter is the dominant feature.

Taiga

The summers, while short, are generally warm and humid.


“There is now less sea ice on Earth than at any time on record.

Atlantic Ocean

From October to June the surface is usually covered with sea ice in the Labrador Sea, Denmark Strait, and Baltic Sea.

Earth

This is predicted to produce changes such as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, more extreme temperature ranges, significant changes in weather and a global rise in average sea levels.

Global warming

Global warming has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice, making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.

Global warming

rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).

Holocene

However, ice melt caused world sea levels to rise about 35 m (115 ft) in the early part of the Holocene.


The amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic has steadily declined over the past few decades because of man-made global warming, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Arctic

The Arctic is affected by current global warming, leading to Arctic sea ice shrinkage, diminished ice in the Greenland ice sheet, and Arctic methane release as the permafrost thaws.

Climate change in the Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s.

Global warming

Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.

Global warming

Scientific consensus on climate change:69

Scientific consensus on climate change

The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.


“At the bottom of the world, sea ice is also at all-time record low levels around Antarctica, the data center said.

Antarctica

"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Antarctica

If all of this ice were melted, sea levels would rise about 60 m (200 ft).

Colonization of Mars

The lowest temperature ever recorded on Earth was 180 K (−89.2 °C, −128.6 °F) in Antarctica.

Physical impacts of climate change

Sea ice extent for September for 2012 was by far the lowest on record at 3.29 million square kilometers, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent of 2007 by 18%.

Sea ice

Arctic sea ice extent ice hit an all-time low in September 2012, when the ice was determined to cover only 24% of the Arctic Ocean, offsetting the previous low of 29% in 2007.


Antarctic ice fluctuates wildly year to year, and the link to man-made global warming there is not clear, NASA ice expert Walt Meier said.

Antarctica

There is evidence from one study that Antarctica is warming as a result of human carbon dioxide emissions, but this remains ambiguous.

Antarctica

According to NASA, the most widespread Antarctic surface melting of the past 30 years occurred in 2005, when an area of ice comparable in size to California briefly melted and refroze; this may have resulted from temperatures rising to as high as 5 °C (41 °F).

Earth

There is a scientific consensus linking human activities to global warming due to industrial carbon dioxide emissions.

Global warming in Antarctica

Research published in 2009 found that overall the continent had become warmer since the 1950s, a finding consistent with the influence of man-made climate change: "We can't pin it down, but it certainly is consistent with the influence of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels", said NASA scientist Drew Shindell, another study co-author.

Ozone depletion

The change was attributed to increasingly cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 20 km (12 mi), a change associated with global warming in a relationship that is still under investigation.


“[Sea ice] also helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean.

Climate change (general concept)

These variations can affect global average surface temperature by redistributing heat between the deep ocean and the atmosphere and/or by altering the cloud/water vapor/sea ice distribution which can affect the total energy budget of the earth.

Earth

Ocean currents are also important factors in determining climate, particularly the thermohaline circulation that distributes thermal energy from the equatorial oceans to the polar regions.

Ocean

It plays an important role in supplying heat to the polar regions, and thus in sea ice regulation.

Sea ice

Furthermore, the sea ice itself functions to help keep polar climates cool, since the ice exists in expansive enough amounts to maintain a cold environment.

Sea ice

Furthermore, sea ice affects the movement of ocean waters.


“ NASA concurred with NOAA, also declaring 2016 the warmest year on record in its own data set that tracks the temperatures at the surface of the planet’s land and oceans, and expressing ‘greater than 95 percent certainty’ in that conclusion.

Instrumental temperature record

"U.S. Report Confirms 2016 Was The Hottest Year On Record".

Instrumental temperature record

Consistent with Schmidt's comment, the NASA / NOAA announcement stated that "globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean" and that the impact of El Niño warming was estimated to have "increased the annual global temperature anomaly for 2016 by 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.12 degrees Celsius)."

Instrumental temperature record

The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.

Instrumental temperature record

The Earth's average surface absolute temperature for the 1961–1990 period has been derived by spatial interpolation of average observed near-surface air temperatures from over the land, oceans and sea ice regions, with a best estimate of 14 °C (57.2 °F).

NASA

Its statements concur with the global scientific consensus that the global climate is warming.


“But the differences between NOAA and NASA aren’t that significant, Schmidt further argued, in the context of the bigger picture.

Communications satellite

In addition, there are important differences in the onboard and ground equipment needed to support the two types of missions.

Global warming controversy

Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change.

Global warming controversy

There are differences between the opinion of scientists and that of the general public.

Global warming

Significant regional differences exist in how concerned people are about climate change and how much they understand the issue.

Instrumental temperature record


‘Getting hung up on the exact nature of the records is interesting, and there’s lots of technical work that can be done there, but the main take-home response there is that the trends we’ve been seeing since the 1970s are continuing and have not paused in any way,’ he said.”

Rock music

Reflecting on developments in rock music at the start of the 1970s, Robert Christgau later wrote in Christgau's Record Guide: Rock Albums of the Seventies (1981): The decade is, of course, an arbitrary schema itself—time doesn't just execute a neat turn toward the future every ten years.

Twitter

Tech writer Bruce Sterling commented in 2007 that using Twitter for "literate communication" is "about as likely as firing up a CB radio and hearing some guy recite the Iliad".

Wayback Machine

Kevin Vaughan suspects that in the long-term of multiple generations "next to nothing" will survive in a useful way besides "if we have continuity in our technological civilization" by which "a lot of the bare data will remain findable and searchable".

Wikipedia

Rosenzweig also criticized the "waffling—encouraged by the NPOV policy—[which] means that it is hard to discern any overall interpretive stance in Wikipedia history".

Wikipedia

On January 20, 2014, Subodh Varma reporting for The Economic Times indicated that not only had Wikipedia's growth stalled, it "had lost nearly ten percent of its page views last year.


[Jonathan Overpeck:] ‘No doubt about it anymore — humans, mainly by burning fossil fuels, are cooking the planet,’ Overpeck said.

Greenhouse gas

The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are: burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air.

Greenhouse gas

At present, the primary source of CO 2 emissions is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum for electricity and heat.

Greenhouse gas

The vast majority of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions come from combustion of fossil fuels, principally coal, oil, and natural gas, with additional contributions coming from deforestation, changes in land use, soil erosion and agriculture (including livestock).

Human impact on the environment

Many of the actions taken by humans that contribute to a heated environment stem from the burning of fossil fuel from a variety of sources, such as: electricity, cars, planes, space heating, manufacturing, or the destruction of forests.

Non-renewable resource

At present, the main energy source used by humans is non-renewable fossil fuels.


The particular signature of warming in 2016 was also revealing in another way, Overpeck said, noting that the stratosphere… saw record cold temperatures last year

Eocene

The polar stratospheric clouds had a warming effect on the poles, increasing temperatures by up to 20 °C in the winter months.

Nuclear winter

that surface air temperatures would be the same as, or colder than, a given region's winter for months to years on end.

Ozone depletion

The change was attributed to increasingly cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 20 km (12 mi), a change associated with global warming in a relationship that is still under investigation.

Ozone depletion

One of the strongest predictions of the greenhouse effect is that the stratosphere will cool.

Satellite temperature measurements

Global Warming theory suggests that the stratosphere should cool while the troposphere warms.


‘We don’t expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.’”

Climate change (general concept)

Climate change is a long-term, sustained trend of change in climate.

Global warming controversy

Using the long-term temperature trends for the earth scientists and statisticians conclude that it continues to warm through time.

Global warming

While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend.

Instrumental temperature record

This long-term trend is the main cause for the record warmth of 2015 and 2016, surpassing all previous years—even ones with strong El Niño events."

Phenology

Between 1850 and 1950 a long-term trend of gradual climate warming is observable, and during this same period the Marsham record of oak-leafing dates tended to become earlier.


Last year’s warmth was manifested across the planet, from the warm tropical ocean waters off the coast of northeastern Australia, where the Great Barrier Reef experienced its worst coral bleaching event on record and large scale coral death, to the Arctic, where sea ice hit regular monthly record lows and overall temperatures were also the warmest on record, at least from January through September 2016.

Arctic Ocean

Marine extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic % Millions of years ago (H) K–Pg Tr–J P–Tr Cap Late D O–S Sea ice, and the cold conditions it sustains, serves to stabilize methane deposits on and near the shoreline, preventing the clathrate breaking down and outgassing methane into the atmosphere, causing further warming.

Coral bleaching

A global mass coral bleaching has been occurring since 2014 because of the highest recorded temperatures plaguing oceans.

Coral bleaching

Coral reef provinces have been permanently damaged by warm sea temperatures, most severely in the Indian Ocean.

Great Barrier Reef

A March 2016 report stated that coral bleaching was more widespread than previously thought, seriously affecting the northern parts of the reef as a result of warming ocean temperatures.

Great Barrier Reef

In March 2017, the journal Nature published a paper showing that huge sections of an 800-kilometre (500 mi) stretch in the northern part of the reef had died in the course of 2016 due to high water temperatures, an event that the authors put down to the effects of global climate change.


Extreme high temperatures were seen from India — where the city of Phalodi recorded temperatures of 51 degrees Celsius (123.8 Fahrenheit) in May, a new national record — to Iran, where a temperature of 53 degrees Celsius (127.4 F) was recorded in Delhoran on July 22.

2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

Temperatures of 53.7C (128.66 F) have been recorded in Pakistan.

2019 heat wave in India and Pakistan

On 2 June 2019, the city of Churu recorded a temperature of 50.8 °C (123.4 °F), only one-fifth of a degree Celsius short of the country's highest-ever temperature, 51 °C (124 °F) during the 2016 heat wave.

Abadan, Iran

which was recorded on January 20, 1964 and February 3, 1967 while the highest is 53 °C (127 °F), recorded on July 11, 1951 and August 9, 1981.

Phalodi

It holds the record for the highest verified temperature recorded in India at 51 °C (124 °F) on 19 May 2016.

Phalodi

The highest temperatures recorded in Phalodi during 2016 summers from 18 May to 21 May when it rose up to 51 degrees Celsius.


But then, just over a year ago, Mike Wallace, a hydrologist with 30 years’ experience, noticed while researching his PhD that they had omitted some key information[…] his results were surprising: there has been no reduction in oceanic pH

Doctor of Philosophy

The aim of the Doctor of Arts degree was to shorten the time needed to complete the degree by focusing on pedagogy over research, although the Doctor of Arts still contains a significant research component.

Doctor of Philosophy

Upon completion of at least two years' research and coursework as a graduate student, a candidate must demonstrate truthful and original contributions to their specific field of knowledge within a frame of academic excellence.

Doctor of Philosophy

A Master's degree is required, and the doctorate combines approximately 4–5 years of research (amounting to 3–5 scientific articles, some of which must be first-author) and 60 ECTS points of studies.

Doctor of Philosophy

This is typically done after one or two years and the research work done may count towards the Ph.D. degree.

Doctor of Philosophy

The arts faculty, which in Germany was labelled the faculty of philosophy, started demanding contributions to research, attested by a dissertation, for the award of their final degree, which was labelled Doctor of Philosophy (abbreviated as Ph.D.)—originally this was just the German equivalent of the Master of Arts degree.


Ocean acidification is the terrifying threat whereby all that man-made CO2 we’ve been pumping into the atmosphere may react with the sea to form a sort of giant acid bath.

Greenhouse gas

This is the case for CO 2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification).

Ocean acidification

With the production of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, oceans are becoming more acidic since CO2 dissolves in water and forms the acidic bicarbonate ion.

Ocean acidification

For example, the elevated oceanic levels of CO 2 may produce CO 2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia.

Ocean acidification

The ocean would not become acidic even if it were to absorb the CO2 produced from the combustion of all fossil fuel resources.

Ocean acidification

Some of it reacts with the water to form carbonic acid.


“[…]The impact on calcification, metabolism, growth, fertility and survival of calcifying marine species when pH is lowered up to 0.3 units […] is beneficial, not damaging.

Carbon dioxide

This reduction in pH affects biological systems in the oceans, primarily oceanic calcifying organisms.

Ocean acidification

The effects on the calcifying organisms at the base of the food webs could potentially destroy fisheries.

Ocean acidification

The German Advisory Council on Global Change stated: In order to prevent disruption of the calcification of marine organisms and the resultant risk of fundamentally altering marine food webs, the following guard rail should be obeyed: the pH of near surface waters should not drop more than 0.2 units below the pre-industrial average value in any larger ocean region (nor in the global mean).

Ocean acidification

It is expected to drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO 2, the impacts being most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean.

Ocean acidification

Although the natural absorption of CO 2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms.


Marine life has nothing whatsoever to fear from ocean acidification.”

Marine life

Human activities affect marine life and marine habitats through overfishing, pollution, acidification and the introduction of invasive species.

Ocean acidification

"Rising levels of acids in seas may endanger marine life, says study".

Ocean acidification

Increasing acidity is thought to have a range of potentially harmful consequences for marine organisms such as depressing metabolic rates and immune responses in some organisms and causing coral bleaching.

Sea

Calcium carbonate also becomes more soluble at lower pH, so ocean acidification is likely to have profound effects on marine organisms with calcareous shells, such as oysters, clams, sea urchins, and corals, because their ability to form shells will be reduced, and the carbonate compensation depth will rise closer to the sea surface.

Seawater

One of the most striking features of this is ocean acidification, resulting from increased CO2 uptake of the oceans related to higher atmospheric concentration of CO2 and higher temperatures, because it severely affects coral reefs, mollusks, echinoderms and crustaceans (see coral bleaching).


[ocean acidification was ] First referenced in a peer-reviewed study in Nature in 2003

Ocean acidification

A National Research Council study released in April 2010 likewise concluded that "the level of acid in the oceans is increasing at an unprecedented rate".

Ocean acidification

A 2012 paper in the journal Science examined the geological record in an attempt to find a historical analog for current global conditions as well as those of the future.

Ocean acidification

A 2013 study claimed acidity was increasing at a rate 10 times faster than in any of the evolutionary crises in Earth's history.

Ocean acidification

In a synthesis report published in Science in 2015, 22 leading marine scientists stated that CO 2 from burning fossil fuels is changing the oceans' chemistry more rapidly than at any time since the Great Dying, Earth's most severe known extinction event, emphasizing that the 2 °C maximum temperature increase agreed upon by governments reflects too small a cut in emissions to prevent "dramatic impacts" on the world's oceans, with lead author Jean-Pierre Gattuso remarking that "The ocean has been minimally considered at previous climate negotiations.

Ocean acidification

A study in 2008 examining a sediment core from the North Atlantic found that while the species composition of coccolithophorids has remained unchanged for the industrial period 1780 to 2004, the calcification of coccoliths has increased by up to 40% during the same time.


There was, he said, an ‘inherent bias’ in scientific journals which predisposed them to publish ‘doom and gloom stories’.

Academic journal

"Scientific Articles Accepted (Personal Checks, Too)".

MIT Technology Review

The historical Technology Review often published articles that were controversial, or critical of certain technologies.

MIT Technology Review

Editor-in-chief Pontin said, "Of the ten stories which were published, only three were entirely accurate.

Scientific journal

Some journals, such as Nature, Science, PNAS, and Physical Review Letters, have a reputation of publishing articles that mark a fundamental breakthrough in their respective fields.

Survivalism

In his 2008 book Wealth, War and Wisdom, Biggs has a gloomy outlook for the economic future, and suggests that investors take survivalist measures.


“The chain of events that links the melting Arctic with weather to the south begins with rising global temperatures causing more sea ice to melt.

Arctic sea ice decline

The fast rate of the sea ice melting is resulting in the oceans absorbing and heating up the Arctic.

Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic include rising temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Climate change in the Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s.

Global warming

Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.

Global warming

Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.


“The jet stream forms a boundary between the cold north and the warmer south, but the lower temperature difference means the winds are now weaker.

Global warming

As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, ocean currents that are driven by that temperature difference, like the Gulf Stream, are weakening.

Jet stream

This in turn reduces the temperature gradient that drives jet stream winds, which may eventually cause the jet stream to become weaker and more variable in its course.

Jet stream

Surface winds below the jet may sway vegetation, but are significantly weaker.

Jet stream

If two air masses, one cold and dense to the North and the other hot and less dense to the South, are separated by a vertical boundary and that boundary should be removed, the difference in densities will result in the cold air mass slipping under the hotter and less dense air mass.

Jet stream

Therefore, the strong eastward moving jet streams are in part a simple consequence of the fact that the Equator is warmer than the North and South poles.


This means the jet stream meanders more, with big loops bringing warm air to the frozen north and cold air into warmer southern climes.”

Early 2014 North American cold wave

According to the UK Met Office, the jet stream deviated[clarification needed] to the south (bringing cold air with it) as a result of unusual contrast between cold air in Canada and mild winter temperatures in the United States.

Early 2014 North American cold wave

This jet stream instability brings warm air north as well as cold air south.

Jet stream

Within the vortex, the cold polar air becomes increasingly cold with neither warmer air from lower latitudes nor energy from the Sun during the polar night.

Jet stream

The path of the jet typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate eastward, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow.

Jet stream

The wind does not flow directly from the hot to the cold area, but is deflected by the Coriolis effect and flows along the boundary of the two air masses.


This “blocking” effect means extreme events can unfold.”

Arab Spring

The world watched the events of the Arab Spring unfold, "gripped by the narrative of a young generation peacefully rising up against oppressive authoritarianism to secure a more democratic political system and a brighter economic future."

List of cognitive biases

"Interoceptive cues predicting exteroceptive events".

List of memory biases

Based on the evidence, memories are not extreme enough.

Solar particle event

The effect can be so pronounced that during extreme events, it is not possible to obtain quality images of the Sun or stars.

Variable star

The expansion phase of a pulsation is caused by the blocking of the internal energy flow by material with a high opacity, but this must occur at a particular depth of the star to create visible pulsations.


Severe ‘snowmageddon’ winters are now strongly linked to soaring polar temperatures, say researchers, with deadly summer heatwaves and torrential floods also probably linked.

Global storm activity of 2010

The El Niño phenomenon was blamed for the unusually high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that moved east, thus pulling rainfall along with it.

Heat wave

Eric Klinenberg has noted that in the United States, the loss of human life in hot spells in summer exceeds that caused by all other weather events combined, including lightning, rain, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes.

List of extreme weather records in Pakistan:12

The most deadly heat wave in the history of Pakistan is the record-breaking heat wave of summer 2010 which occurred in the last ten days of May.

Rain

The climate is characterized by hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters.

Year Without a Summer

Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 95 °F (35 °C) to near-freezing within hours.


Prof Adam Scaife, a climate modelling expert at the UK’s Met Office, said the evidence for a link to shrinking Arctic ice was now good: ‘The consensus points towards that being a real effect.’”

Adam Scaife

Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting and have uncovered a signal to noise paradox in climate models that makes them better at predicting the real climate than they are at predicting themselves.

Climatic Research Unit email controversy:113

In response to the incident, 1,700 British scientists signed a joint statement circulated by the UK Met Office declaring their "utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities".

Greenland

Ben Keene, the atlas's editor, commented: "In the last two or three decades, global warming has reduced the size of glaciers throughout the Arctic and earlier this year, news sources confirmed what climate scientists already knew: water, not rock, lay beneath this ice bridge on the east coast of Greenland.

Scientific consensus on climate change:186

Scientific consensus on climate change

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded: There is unequivocal evidence that Earth's lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking.

Scientific consensus on climate change:307

Scientific consensus on climate change

Network of African Science Academies: "A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change."


The connection between the vanishing Arctic ice and extreme summer weather in the northern hemisphere is probable, according to scientists, but not yet as certain as the winter link.

Arctic sea ice decline

Evidence suggest that the continued loss of Arctic sea-ice and snow cover may influence weather at lower latitudes.

Early 2014 North American cold wave

Europe also saw the 2013-2014 Atlantic winter storms in Europe which has been linked to the cold winter in North America.

Earth

Earth is closest to the Sun (at perihelion) in January, which is summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

Earth

Consequently, summers are 2.3 °C (4 °F) warmer in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere under similar conditions.

Extreme weather

Some studies assert a connection between rapidly warming arctic temperatures and thus a vanishing cryosphere to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.


Another consequence of the fast melting Arctic raises the possibility that there may be even worse extreme weather to come, according to a few scientists: titanic Atlantic superstorms and hurricanes barreling across Europe.

Arctic

In particular, there are concerns that Arctic shrinkage, a consequence of melting glaciers and other ice in Greenland, could soon contribute to a substantial rise in sea levels worldwide.

Climate change in the Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s.

Physical impacts of climate change

"Global warming will bring fiercer hurricanes".

Physical impacts of climate change

Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses.

Scientific consensus on climate change:107

Scientific consensus on climate change

The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO 2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid".


This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

2014–16 El Niño event

During November and December 2015, values within NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index peaked at 2.4 °C (4.3 °F), which surpassed December 1997 value of 2.2 °C (4.0 °F).

2014–16 El Niño event

As a result of this the BoM, NOAA's CPC, IRI, and the JMA, all declared that the record-tying El Niño event had ended in late May/early June.

2014–16 El Niño event

The El Niño event also contributed to the Earth's warming trend, with 2014 and 2015 being two of the warmest years on record.

El Niño

Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the westward extension of the Azores High.

El Niño

However, the Japan Meteorological Agency declares that an El Niño event has started when the average five month sea surface temperature deviation for the NINO.3 region, is over 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) warmer for six consecutive months or longer.


The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’”

El Niño

An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme.

El Niño

It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record.

Holocene

The Holocene has been identified with the current warm period, known as MIS 1.

Ice age

The Huronian ice age was caused by the elimination of atmospheric methane, a greenhouse gas, during the Great Oxygenation Event.

Little Ice Age

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.


Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record.

Earth

The highest air temperature ever measured on Earth was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) in Furnace Creek, California, in Death Valley, in 1913.

Global warming

Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.

Paleocene

In the Paleocene, with a global average temperature of about 24–25 °C (75–77 °F), compared to 14 °C (57 °F) in more recent times, the Earth had a greenhouse climate without permanent ice sheets at the poles, like the preceding Mesozoic.

Paleocene

The Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum was an approximate 200,000 year long event where the global average temperature rose by some 5 to 8 °C (9 to 14 °F), and mid-latitude and polar areas may have exceeded modern tropical temperatures of 24–29 °C (75–84 °F).

Paleocene

For comparison, the average global temperature for the period between 1951 and 1980 was 14 °C (57 °F).


Scientists confirm a mass bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef this year has killed more corals than ever before, with more than two thirds destroyed across large swathes of the biodiverse site.

Coral bleaching

Over two thirds of the Great Barrier Reef have been reported to be bleached or dead.

Coral bleaching

In 2016, bleaching of coral on the Great Barrier Reef killed between 29 and 50 percent of the reef's coral.

Great Barrier Reef

A March 2016 report stated that coral bleaching was more widespread than previously thought, seriously affecting the northern parts of the reef as a result of warming ocean temperatures.

Great Barrier Reef

Many of the mature breeding adults died in the bleaching events of 2016–17 leading to low coral birth rates.

Great Barrier Reef

According to a 2012 study by the National Academy of Science, since 1985, the Great Barrier Reef has lost more than half of its corals with two-thirds of the loss occurring from 1998 due to the factors listed before.


When water temperatures become too high, coral becomes stressed and expels the algae, which leave the coral a bleached white color.

Coral bleaching

Coral bleaching occurs when coral polyps expel algae that live inside their tissues.

Coral bleaching

The loss of the colorful algae causes the coral to turn white.

Coral reef

Coral that loses a large fraction of its zooxanthellae becomes white (or sometimes pastel shades in corals that are pigmented with their own proteins) and is said to be bleached, a condition which, unless corrected, can kill the coral.

Coral

Under such environmental stresses, corals expel their Symbiodinium; without them coral tissues reveal the white of their skeletons, an event known as coral bleaching.

Coral

Mass ejections are known as coral bleaching because the algae contribute to coral coloration; some colors, however, are due to host coral pigments, such as green fluorescent proteins (GFPs).


Stress from unusually warm ocean water heated by man-made climate change and the natural El Niño climate pattern caused the die-off.

2014–16 El Niño event

The 2014–16 El Niño was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line.

El Niño

The ENSO is the cycle of warm and cold sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

El Niño

However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is the warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in either the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño

"Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones".

La Niña

La Niña is the positive and cold phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.


Mass coral bleaching is a new phenomenon and was never observed before the 1980s as global warming ramped up.

Coral bleaching

The first mass global bleaching events were recorded in 1998 and 2010, which was when the El Niño caused the oceans temperatures to rise and worsened the corals living conditions.

Coral bleaching

While localized triggers lead to localized bleaching, the large scale coral bleaching events of the recent years have been triggered by global warming.

Coral bleaching

According to Clive Wilkinson of Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network of Townsville, Australia, in 1998 the mass bleaching event that occurred in the Indian Ocean region was due to the rising of sea temperatures by 2°C coupled with the strong El Niño event in 1997-1998.

Coral bleaching

A global mass coral bleaching has been occurring since 2014 because of the highest recorded temperatures plaguing oceans.

Coral bleaching

The first recorded mass bleaching event that took place in the Belize Barrier Reef was in 1998, where sea level temperatures reached up to 31.5 °C (88.7 °F) from 10 August to 14 October.


“While record low sea ice is nothing new in the Arctic, this is a surprising turn of events for the Antarctic.

Antarctica

"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Antarctica

"Antarctica appears to have broken a heat record".

Antarctica

The extent of sea ice around Antarctica (in terms of square kilometers of coverage) has remained roughly constant in recent decades, although the amount of variation it has experienced in its thickness is unclear.

Climate change in the Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s.

Climate change in the Arctic

"Record Arctic sea ice minimum confirmed by NSIDC".


Even as sea ice in the Arctic has seen a rapid and consistent decline over the past decade, its counterpart in the Southern Hemisphere has seen its extent increasing.”

Antarctica

A satellite record revealed that the overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with rapid rates of decrease in 2014–2017 reducing the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record.

Arctic Ocean

Polar Discovery "Continued Sea Ice Decline in 2005".

Climate change in the Arctic

Sea ice is currently in decline in area, extent, and volume and summertime sea ice may cease to exist sometime during the 21st century.

Climate change in the Arctic

From 1979–1996, the average per decade decline in entire ice coverage was a 2.2% decline in ice extent and a 3% decline in ice area.

Sea ice

Antarctic sea ice extent gradually increased in the period of satellite observations, which began in 1979, until a rapid decline in southern hemisphere spring of 2016.


Skeptics have long pointed to ice gain in the Southern Hemisphere as evidence climate change wasn’t occurring, but scientists warned that it was caused by natural variations and circulations in the atmosphere.

Climate change denial

These groups often point to natural variability, such as sunspots and cosmic rays, to explain the warming trend.

Global warming controversy

In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming controversy

In a NASA report published in January 2013, Hansen and Sato noted "the 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing."

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".


It “certainly puts the kibosh on everyone saying that Antarctica’s ice is just going up and up,” Meier said.

Antarctica

"Study concludes Antarctica is gaining ice, rather than losing it".

Antarctica

Antarctica

Antarctica

However, it is the outflow of the ice from the land to form the ice shelf which causes a rise in global sea level.

Antarctica

found instead that the net change in ice mass is slightly positive at approximately 82 gigatonnes per year (with significant regional variation) which would result in Antarctic activity reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm per year.


For what appears to be the first time since scientists began keeping track, sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic are at record lows this time of year.

Antarctica

Arctic sea ice decline

The previous record of the lowest area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice in 2012 saw a low of 1.58 million square miles (4.09 million square kilometers).

Arctic sea ice decline

The Arctic sea ice minimum is the day in a given year when Arctic sea ice reaches its smallest extent, occurring at the end of the summer melting season, normally during September.

Climate change in the Arctic

The Arctic sea ice September minimum extent (i.e., area with at least 15% sea ice coverage) reached new record lows in 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2012.

Sea ice

Arctic sea ice extent ice hit an all-time low in September 2012, when the ice was determined to cover only 24% of the Arctic Ocean, offsetting the previous low of 29% in 2007.


“It’s far too early to tell if what we are seeing in the Arctic, and now the Antarctic, is a sharp shift towards warmer poles with less ice.

Antarctica

"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic".

Climate change in the Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s.

Eocene

During this period of time, little to no ice was present on Earth with a smaller difference in temperature from the equator to the poles.

Global warming

Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.

North Pole

The retreat of the Arctic sea ice will accelerate global warming, as less ice cover reflects less solar radiation, and may have serious climate implications by contributing to Arctic cyclone generation.


Temperatures in the Arctic have soared recently, and scientists are struggling to explain exactly why.

Arctic

The effects of global warming in the Arctic include rising temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Global warming

Global warming

Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming more erratic.

Global warming

Global warming

Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.


To make matters worse, the water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean are several degrees above average, which is an expected result of having less sea ice.

Arctic Ocean

Much of the Arctic Ocean is covered by sea ice that varies in extent and thickness seasonally.

Arctic Ocean

Reduction of the area of Arctic sea ice reduces the planet's average albedo, possibly resulting in global warming in a positive feedback mechanism.

Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean's surface temperature and salinity vary seasonally as the ice cover melts and freezes; its salinity is the lowest on average of the five major oceans, due to low evaporation, heavy fresh water inflow from rivers and streams, and limited connection and outflow to surrounding oceanic waters with higher salinities.

Arctic Ocean

Atlantic Water has the same salinity as Arctic Bottom Water but is much warmer (up to 3 °C).

Global warming


“Unlike genuine pollutants, carbon dioxide (CO2) is an odorless, colorless gas.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO 2) is a colorless gas with a density about 60% higher than that of dry air.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon monoxide

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless, and tasteless flammable gas that is slightly less dense than air.

Carbon monoxide

Carbon monoxide is colorless, odorless, and tasteless, but highly toxic.

Exhaust gas

Carbon monoxide is colorless, odorless and tasteless, but highly toxic.


[CO2] is also a greenhouse gas which helps maintain earth at a habitable temperature.

Earth

This last phenomenon is known as the greenhouse effect: trace molecules within the atmosphere serve to capture thermal energy emitted from the ground, thereby raising the average temperature.

Earth

Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone are the primary greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gas

The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3).

Terraforming of Mars

Because its atmosphere consists mainly of CO 2, a known greenhouse gas, once Mars begins to heat, the CO 2 may help to keep thermal energy near the surface.

Water

Water vapor and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere provide a temperature buffer (greenhouse effect) which helps maintain a relatively steady surface temperature.


But observations, such as those on our CO2 Coalition website, show that increased CO2 levels over the next century will cause modest and beneficial warming—perhaps as much as one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit)

Climate change in the United States

In it was the prediction that on our current course the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees Fahrenheit (or about 3.9 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century.

Climate change in the United States

"A projected increase of 4.05 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature is expected by 2065, and a projected increase of 9.37 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature can be expected by the turn of the century if nothing is done to curb emissions.

Greenhouse gas

Future warming is projected to have a range of impacts, including sea level rise, increased frequencies and severities of some extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and regional changes in agricultural productivity.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, based on the scientific consensus that (part one) global warming is occurring and (part two) it is extremely likely that human-made CO2 emissions have predominantly caused it.

Sea level rise

Also, a report by the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research stated that around three million years ago, levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere were similar to today’s levels which increased temperature by two to three degrees Celsius and melted one third of Antarctica’s ice sheets.


The costs of emissions regulations, which will be paid by everyone, will be punishingly high and will provide no benefits to most people anywhere in the world.

Environmental economics

Increasing the costs of polluting will discourage polluting, and will provide a "dynamic incentive," that is, the disincentive continues to operate even as pollution levels fall.

Environmental economics

A pollution tax that reduces pollution to the socially "optimal" level would be set at such a level that pollution occurs only if the benefits to society (for example, in form of greater production) exceeds the costs.

Market failure

Because there is very low cost but high benefit to individual drivers in using the roads, the roads become congested, decreasing their usefulness to society.

Net metering

point out that while distributed solar and other energy efficiency measures do pose a challenge to electric utilities' existing business model, the benefits of distributed generation outweigh the costs, and those benefits are shared by all ratepayers.

United Kingdom enterprise law

The National Health Service was set up in 1946 to provide everyone free health care, regardless of class or income, paid for by progressive taxation.


“In 2013 the level of U.S. farm output was about 2.7 times its 1948 level, and productivity was growing at an average annual rate of 1.52%.

Economy of the United States

Despite the recession, it was still at 2.79% in 2012 and will slide only marginally to 2.73% in 2013, according to provisional data, and should remain at a similar level in 2014.

Economy of the United States

It grew 3.0% per year on average in the 1960s, 2.1% in the 1970s, 2.4% in the 1980s, 2.2% in the 1990s, 0.7% in the 2000s, and 0.9% from 2010 to 2017.

Reaganomics

GDP per employed person increased at an average 1.5% rate during the Reagan administration, compared to an average 0.6% during the preceding eight years.

Reaganomics

Private sector productivity growth, measured as real output per hour of all persons, increased at an average rate of 1.9% during Reagan's eight years, compared to an average 1.3% during the preceding eight years.

Unemployment in the United States

This forecast assumes real GDP growth would be 1.4% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014.


With more CO2 in the atmosphere, the challenge [feeding 2.5 billion more people] can and will be met.

Carbon footprint

To set these numbers into context, assuming a global population around 9–10 billion by 2050 a carbon footprint of about 2–2.5 tons CO2e per capita is needed to stay within a 2 °C target.

Environmental degradation

The amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) will rise, and both of these will influence water resources; evaporation depends strongly on temperature and moisture availability which can ultimately affect the amount of water available to replenish groundwater supplies.

Greenhouse gas

In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are approximately 0.645 billion tonnes of CO 2 per year, whereas humans contribute 29 billion tonnes of CO 2 each year.

Greenhouse gas

the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 million tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock.

Greenhouse gas

"CO2 in the atmosphere just exceeded 415 parts per million for the first time in human history".


“Global warming and climate change, even if it is 100% caused by humans, is so slow that it cannot be observed by anyone in their lifetime.

Global warming

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation, have been detected worldwide.

Global warming

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Global warming

But, more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation, while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation.

Global warming

The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased volcanic activity.

Scientific consensus on climate change

The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.


Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts and other natural disasters have yet to show any obvious long-term change.”

Disaster risk reduction

Climate change, through rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and changing sea levels, will affect the nature of hydrometeorological disasters, such as droughts, floods, and cyclones.

Effects of global warming

There may have been changes in other climate extremes (e.g., floods, droughts and tropical cyclones) but these changes are more difficult to identify.

Extreme weather

Researchers have for the first time attributed recent floods, droughts and heat waves, to human-induced climate change.

Natural disaster

A natural disaster is a major adverse event resulting from natural processes of the Earth; examples are floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, storms, and other geologic processes.

Severe weather

Another form of severe weather is drought, which is a prolonged period of persistently dry weather (that is, absence of precipitation).


Drought in the western U.S. pales in comparison to the mega-droughts tree rings tell us existed in centuries past.

Droughts in the United States

Drought apparently struck what is now the American Southwest back in the 13th century, which probably affected the Pueblo cities, and tree rings also document drought in the lower and central Mississippi River basin between the 14th and 16th century.

Megadrought

A megadrought (or mega-drought) is a prolonged drought lasting two decades or longer.

Megadrought

The tree-ring data indicate that the Western states have experienced droughts that lasted ten times longer than anything the modern U.S. has seen.

Megadrought

Based on annual tree rings, NOAA has recorded patterns of drought covering most of the U.S. for every year since 1700.

Megadrought

During a 200-year mega drought in the Sierra Nevada that lasted from the 9th to the 12th centuries, trees would grow on newly exposed shoreline at Fallen Leaf Lake, then as the lake grew once again, the trees were preserved under cold water.


Lake-bottom sediments in Florida tell us that recent major hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has been less frequent than in centuries past.

Atlantic hurricane

Few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium.

Atlantic hurricane

Millennial-scale variability in catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Florida

Devastating hurricanes in 1926 and 1928, followed by the Great Depression, brought that period to a halt.

Florida

From 1851 to 2006, Florida was struck by 114 hurricanes, 37 of them major—category 3 and above.

Hurricane Katrina

The pressure measurement made Katrina the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, only to be surpassed by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma later in the season; it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the time.


“Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every ten years.

Sea level rise

For instance, a 2016 study led by Jim Hansen concluded that based on past climate change data, sea level rise could accelerate exponentially in the coming decades, with a doubling time of 10, 20 or 40 years, respectively, raising the ocean by several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years.

Sea level rise

More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century.

Sea level rise

"20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise".

Sea level rise

"Antarctica ice melt has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades".

Sea level rise

A 2018 systematic review study estimated that ice loss across the entire continent was 43 gigatons (Gt) per year on average during the period from 1992 to 2002, but has accelerated to an average of 220 Gt per year during the five years from 2012 to 2017.


If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10-14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade?”

Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans:58

It was also forecast that the storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain would reach 14–18 feet (4.3–5.5 m), with waves reaching 7 feet (2 m) above the storm surge.

Hurricane Katrina

The height of the surge is uncertain because of a lack of data, although a tide gauge in Plaquemines Parish indicated a storm tide in excess of 14 feet (4.3 m) and a 12-foot (3.7 m) storm surge was recorded in Grand Isle.

Hurricane Katrina

The range of surge levels in eastern St. Tammany Parish is estimated at 13–16 feet (4.0–4.9 m), not including wave action.

Hurricane Katrina

Since the storm surge produced by the hurricane's right-front quadrant (containing the strongest winds) was forecast to be 28 feet (8.5 m), while the levees offered protection to 23 feet (7.0 m), emergency management officials in New Orleans feared that the storm surge could go over the tops of levees protecting the city, causing major flooding.

Storm surge

A storm surge of 14 ft (4.2 m) occurred in New York City during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.


If Hillary would have fact-checked her example of sea level rise in Norfolk, Virginia, she would have found out that the experts already know this is mostly due to the land there sinking.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton's story was thoroughly investigated by Fact Checker Michelle Ye Hee Lee in the Washington Post.

Sea level rise

Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of subsidence (land sinking or settling) or post-glacial rebound (land rising due to the loss of the weight of ice after melting), so that local sea level rise may be higher or lower than the global average.

Sea level rise

An example is the extension of the Delta Works in the Netherlands, a country that sits partially below sea level and is subsiding.

Sea level rise

A study conducted between 1982 and 2010 found that some areas of Jakarta have been sinking by as much as 28 cm (11 inches) per year due to ground water drilling and the weight of its buildings, and the problem is now exacerbated by sea level rise.

Sea level rise

In Europe for instance, considerable variation is found because some land areas are rising while others are sinking.


[…]until we develop a practical, cost-competitive alternative to fossil fuels, it is unlikely that renewable energy will ever make up more than 15-20% of global energy requirements.

Cellulosic ethanol

"The production of cellulosic ethanol represents not only a step toward true energy diversity for the country, but a very cost-effective alternative to fossil fuels.

Nuclear power debate

The World Nuclear Association argues that: "Obviously sun, wind, tides and waves cannot be controlled to provide directly either continuous base-load power, or peak-load power when it is needed,..." "In practical terms non-hydro renewables are therefore able to supply up to some 15–20% of the capacity of an electricity grid, though they cannot directly be applied as economic substitutes for most coal or nuclear power, however significant they become in particular areas with favourable conditions."

Renewable energy

According to the International Energy Agency, biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050.

Renewable energy

National renewable energy markets are projected to continue to grow strongly in the coming decade and beyond, and some 120 countries have various policy targets for longer-term shares of renewable energy, including a 20% target of all electricity generated for the European Union by 2020.

Renewable energy

Globally, the long-term technical potential of wind energy is believed to be five times total current global energy production, or 40 times current electricity demand, assuming all practical barriers needed were overcome.


But the observed warming as monitored by satellites (our only truly global monitoring system) has been only about half of what computerized climate models say should be happening.

Global warming

It is a major aspect of climate change and has been demonstrated by direct temperature measurements and by measurements of various effects of the warming.

Global warming

Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.

Global warming

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation, have been detected worldwide.

Global warming

Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites, and indirect measurements are available beginning in the early 1600s.

Global warming

Physical climate models are also unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.


“The most famous of these studies, published in 2010 by Paul Kench and Arthur Webb of the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission in Fiji, showed that of 27 Pacific islands, 14% lost area.

Funamanu

Paul Kench at the University of Auckland in New Zealand and Arthur Webb at the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission in Fiji released a study in 2010 on the dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise in the central Pacific.

Geography of Tuvalu

Tuvalu was mentioned in the study, and Webb and Kench found that seven islands in one of its nine atolls have spread by more than 3 per cent on average since the 1950s.

Kiribati

Paul Kench at the University of Auckland in New Zealand and Arthur Webb at the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission in Fiji released a study in 2010 on the dynamic response of atolls and reef islands in the central Pacific.

Kiribati

Kiribati was mentioned in the study, and Webb and Kench found that the three major urbanised islands in Kiribati—Betio, Bairiki and Nanikai—increased by 30% (36 hectares), 16.3% (5.8 hectares) and 12.5% (0.8 hectares), respectively.

Tuvalu

A study published in 2018 estimated the change in land area of Tuvalu's nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, indicating that 75% of the islands had grown in area, with an overall increase of more than 2%.


“It seems self-evident that rising sea levels will reduce land area.

Global warming

Global warming

Climate change threatens to diminish crop yields, harming food security, and rising sea levels may flood coastal infrastructure and force the abandonment of many coastal cities.

Global warming

rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).

Global warming

The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.

Sea level rise

Humans impact how much water is stored on land.


However, there is a process of accretion, where coral broken up by the waves washes up on these low-lying islands as sand, counteracting the reduction in land mass.

Barrier island

If sea level changes are too drastic, time will be insufficient for wave action to accumulate sand into a dune, which will eventually become a barrier island through aggradation.

Barrier island

He believed that waves moving into shallow water churned up sand, which was deposited in the form of a submarine bar when the waves broke and lost much of their energy.

Coral reef

Habili – reef specific to the Red Sea; does not reach near enough to the surface to cause visible surf; may be a hazard to ships (from the Arabic for "unborn") Microatoll – community of species of corals; vertical growth limited by average tidal height; growth morphologies offer a low-resolution record of patterns of sea level change; fossilized remains can be dated using radioactive carbon dating and have been used to reconstruct Holocene sea levels Cays – small, low-elevation, sandy islands formed on the surface of coral reefs from eroded material that piles up, forming an area above sea level; can be stabilized by plants to become habitable; occur in tropical environments throughout the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans (including the Caribbean and on the Great Barrier Reef and Belize Barrier Reef), where they provide habitable and agricultural land Seamount or guyot – formed when a coral reef on a volcanic island subsides; tops of seamounts are rounded and guyots are flat; flat tops of guyots, or tablemounts, are due to erosion by waves, winds, and atmospheric processes Coral reef ecosystems contain distinct zones that host different kinds of habitats.

Coral reef

Waves, grazing fish (such as parrotfish), sea urchins, sponges and other forces and organisms act as bioeroders, breaking down coral skeletons into fragments that settle into spaces in the reef structure or form sandy bottoms in associated reef lagoons.

Coral

Over time, corals fragment and die, sand and rubble accumulates between the corals, and the shells of clams and other molluscs decay to form a gradually evolving calcium carbonate structure.


“suggest that residents are fleeing atolls swiftly sinking into the sea.

Battle of the Coral Sea

Heavily damaged and without power, Neosho was left drifting and slowly sinking (16°09′S 158°03′E / 16.150°S 158.050°E / -16.150; 158.050).

Bikini Atoll

"Exiled by nuclear testing, rising seas force Bikinians to flee again".

Kiribati

Since land height has not changed the vulnerability of the greater part of the land area of each island to submergence due to sea level rise is also unchanged and these low-lying atolls remain immediately and extremely vulnerable to inundation or sea water flooding."

Kiribati

"Entire nation of Kiribati to be relocated over rising sea level threat".

Kiribati


President Hilda Heine has told reporters that longtime residents are leaving the Marshall Islands because climate change is threatening the nation’s existence.”

Hilda Heine

"First female President Hilda Hine elected in the Marshall Islands".

Hilda Heine

"Hilda Heine elected first female Pacific leader as president of Marshall Islands".

Marshall Islands

"A sinking feeling: why is the president of the tiny Pacific island nation of Nauru so concerned about climate change?".

Marshall Islands

"In The Marshall Islands, Traditional Agriculture And Healthy Eating Are A Climate Change Strategy".

Marshall Islands

According to the president of Nauru, the Marshall Islands are the most endangered nation in the world due to flooding from climate change.


Policy makers who want to help the residents of the Marshall Islands today should look at improving the islands’ resilience

Development communication

Communication for development is seen as a two-way process for sharing ideas and knowledge using a range of communication tools and approaches that empower individuals and communities to take actions to improve their lives.

Development communication

Its approach is anticipatory which aims to improve policymaking in order to provide as much lead time as necessary in the solution of societal problems.

Development communication

Policy sciences are concerned with helping people make better decisions toward fostering human dignity for all.

Development communication

Submission of reports provides specific interventions that will guide policy makers in decisions.

Marshall Islands

United States government assistance is the mainstay of the economy.


” ‘You see, gas in America is incredibly cheap, because of fracking,’ he says.

Natural gas

The high pressure water breaks up or "fracks" the rock, which releases gas from the rock formation.

Natural gas

In April 2008, the wholesale price was $10 per 1000 cubic feet ($10/million BTU).

Shale gas

Shale gas tends to cost more to produce than gas from conventional wells, because of the expense of the massive hydraulic fracturing treatments required to produce shale gas, and of horizontal drilling.

Shale gas

Natural gas for industrial use has become cheaper by around 30% compared to the rest of the US.

Shale gas

"Will Natural Gas Stay Cheap Enough To Replace Coal And Lower US Carbon Emissions".


The discrepancy between model-predicted warming and (lower) real-world observations has inspired new respect for natural climate variability relative to greenhouse-gas forcing.

Attribution of recent climate change:170

Attribution of recent climate change

Barnett and colleagues (2005) say that the observed warming of the oceans "cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models," concluding that "it is of human origin, a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences".

Attribution of recent climate change:192

Attribution of recent climate change

Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in total solar irradiance and volcanic activity.

Attribution of recent climate change:199

Attribution of recent climate change

Models indicate that solar and volcanic forcings can explain periods of relative warmth and cold between AD 1000 and 1900, but human-induced forcings are needed to reproduce the late-20th century warming.

Global cooling

When the model included estimated changes in solar intensity, it gave a reasonable match to temperatures over the previous thousand years and its prediction was that "CO 2 warming dominates the surface temperature patterns soon after 1980."

Global warming

Attributing detected temperature changes and extreme events to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases requires scientists to rule out known internal climate variability and natural external forcings.


Back in the late 1980s, the UN claimed that if global warming were not checked by 2000, rising sea levels would wash entire counties away.

Global warming

Climate change threatens to diminish crop yields, harming food security, and rising sea levels may flood coastal infrastructure and force the abandonment of many coastal cities.

Global warming

Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.

Global warming

rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).

Global warming

The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.

Global warming

Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.


“In 2009, then-British Prime Minister Gordon Brown predicted that the world had only 50 days to save the planet from global warming.

2010 United Kingdom general election

Realising that a deal between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats was imminent, the next day on Tuesday 11 May Brown announced his resignation as Prime Minister, marking the end of 13 years of Labour government.

Global warming

In 2009 several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord, which has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, leading poor nations to reject it.

Gordon Brown

After initial rises in opinion polls following Brown becoming Prime Minister, Labour's popularity declined with the onset of a recession in 2008, leading to poor results in the local and European elections in 2009.

Gordon Brown

On 5 June 2007, just three weeks before he was due to take the post of Prime Minister, Brown made a speech promising "British Jobs for British workers".

Gordon Brown

Appearances and news coverage leading up to the handover were interpreted as preparing the ground for Brown to become Prime Minister, in part by creating the impression of a statesman with a vision for leadership and global change.


“climate economists see a positive externality, not a negative one, from the human influence on climate.

Carbon tax

In economic theory, pollution is considered a negative externality, a negative effect on a third party not directly involved in a transaction, and is a type of market failure.

Externality

Externalities can be either positive or negative.

Externality

A positive externality (also called "external benefit" or "external economy" or "beneficial externality") is the positive effect an activity imposes on an unrelated third party.

Highway

The contribution of transport systems to potentially hazardous climate change is a significant negative externality which is difficult to evaluate quantitatively, making it difficult (but not impossible) to include in transport economics-based research and analysis.

Tax

Economists describe environmental impacts as negative externalities.